| 苏云晴,鲁玮骏,胡稳权.关税冲击与全国统一大市场形成：基于有为政府的视角[J].数量经济技术经济研究,2026,(5):182-204 | | 关税冲击与全国统一大市场形成：基于有为政府的视角 | | Tariff Shocks and Building a Unified National Market: A Perspective of the Promising Government | | | | DOI： | | 中文关键词: 加征关税 全国统一大市场 有为政府 | | 英文关键词: Imposing Extra Tariff Unified National Market Promising Government | | 基金项目: | | | 中文摘要: | | 纵深推进全国统一大市场建设是美国加征关税背景下有效应对外部贸易冲击的重大战略举措。基于中国海关进出口数据，本文实证检验了 2018 年美国对部分中国出口产品加征关税对中国城市间市场分割程度的影响。研究发现，关税冲击客观上促使全国城市间市场分割程度降低。机制分析发现，关税冲击增强了地方政府促进国内市场一体化的行为激励，使得地方政府采取降低制度壁垒、突破地理阻隔、消除信息不畅的行为举措。异质性分析揭示，在出口依存度较高、本地消费能力较弱、经济增长目标更高、财政压力更大、平均坡度较大及宗族网络较弱的地区该影响更为显著。此外，地方政府推进区域一体化能够促进企业的异地投资行为并降低企业的销售成本和制度性交易成本。本文从有为政府的视角拓展了美国加征关税的应对策略研究，对探索有效市场与有为政府相结合以应对外部贸易冲击的可行路径具有启示意义。 | | 英文摘要: | | In recent years, the global political and economic landscape has been characterized by rising uncertainties, a noticeable trend of deglobalization, a resurgence of trade protectionism, and frequent international trade frictions. How to cope with the external market shocks triggered by trade frictions is a critical issue of widespread concern for nations worldwide. Leveraging a super-large market with substantial growth potential, facilitating a domestic circulation system driven by internal demand, and fostering the development of a robust domestic market are viable strategies to effectively mitigate external risks. Since 2018, the central government has repeatedly emphasized the construction of a unified national market. In March 2022, the Opinions on Accelerating the Construction of a Unified National Market issued by the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China and the State Council outlined the overarching requirements, primary objectives, and key tasks for this endeavor. In December 2024, the National Development and Reform Commission promulgated the Guidelines for the Construction of a Unified National Market (Trial), providing further specific guidance. This raises the following questions: How do trade frictions impact the construction of a unified national market? How can local governments take proactive measures to reduce domestic market segmentation? Exploring these questions is of great significance for actively addressing global economic fluctuations and external risks while promoting high-quality development, particularly at a time when international trade conflicts continue to escalate.Based on China’s customs import and export data, this study constructs an indicator of the impact of China-US trade frictions using the shift-share method. Using a panel dataset of 277 prefecture-level cities in China from 2012 to 2022, we examine the effects of the Trump administration’s imposition of additional tariffs on certain Chinese export products in 2018 on the degree of market segmentation among Chinese cities. The empirical findings reveal that the external market shock induced by the 2018 tariffs objectively contributed to a reduction in market segmentation across Chinese cities, thereby facilitating the formation of a unified national market. Mechanism analysis indicates that the reduction in market segmentation amid trade frictions is closely related to local government behavior. To counter external shocks, municipal government proactively explored and unleashed domestic market potential, striving to enhance cross-regional cooperation within the country. Regarding concrete measures, local governments formulated and participated in cross-regional integration initiatives; promoted the interconnection of infrastructure, such as roads, bridges, and railways; and strengthened digital infrastructure. These efforts aimed to dismantle institutional barriers, geographical obstacles, and information silos across regions, thereby reducing market segmentation and advancing the construction of a unified national market. Heterogeneity analysis reveals that the effect of China-US trade frictions in reducing market segmentation is more pronounced in regions with higher export dependency, weaker local consumption capacity, higher economic growth targets, greater fiscal pressure, rugged terrain, and weaker clan networks. Further analysis reveals that the promotion of domestic market integration by local governments in response to trade frictions has facilitated firms’ cross-regional investment and reduced their sales costs and institutional transaction costs.The conclusions of this study provide a theoretical foundation and empirical support for local governments to take measures to reduce domestic market segmentation under trade frictions. They offer insights for better leveraging the role of the government, advancing the construction of a unified national market in greater depth, and effectively responding to external risk shocks. First, governments at all levels should embrace the concept of promoting a unified national market and adopt effective measures to reduce domestic market segmentation, using domestic market integration as a buffer against external demand shocks. Second, attention should be paid to the differential impact of trade frictions on market segmentation across regions, with a focus on the constraining factors affecting local governments’ efforts to advance the construction of a unified national market. Third, a capable government should empower an efficient market, with government and enterprises working in synergy to promote the construction of a unified national market. | | 查看全文 |
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