| LIANG Shangkun,DONG Qing.Management’s Macroeconomic Cognition and Corporate Default Risk[J].The Journal of quantitative and technical economics,2023,(9):200-220 |
| 管理层宏观经济认知与企业违约风险 |
| Management’s Macroeconomic Cognition and Corporate Default Risk |
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| 中文关键词: 管理层宏观经济认知 企业违约风险 管理层激励 行业周期性 行业政策敏感性 |
| 英文关键词: Managerial Macroeconomic Cognition Corporate Default Risk Management Cognition Industry Cyclicality Industry Policy Sensitivity |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 党的二十大报告指出，防范化解金融风险仍是重中之重。近年来，日趋复杂的宏观经济环境给企业持续发展和金融风险防范带来了新的挑战。本文以2009~2020年中国沪深A股上市公司为研究样本，探索了管理层宏观经济认知对企业违约风险的影响、机制与差异。研究发现：管理层宏观经济认知的提高对企业的违约风险具有重要影响，管理层的宏观经济认知提高一个标准差，企业的违约风险下降8.3%；与国有企业相比，非国有企业受到宏观经济认知的影响更强；传导机制上，管理层宏观经济认知有利于提高企业运营稳定性和内部治理质量，进而缓解企业违约风险；企业的管理层激励、融资约束与政治联系，以及行业的周期性与政策敏感性会显著调节管理层宏观经济认知与违约风险的关系。本文从管理层认知的新兴视角出发探索其对企业违约风险的影响，有助于推进宏观经济政策影响微观企业行为的传导机制与后果研究。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| The more complex macroeconomic environment in recent years has brought new challenges to the sustainable development of enterprises and the effective prevention of financial risks. Some enterprises are experiencing a liquidity crisis, which can even result in an enterprise default. The impact of corporate defaults is becoming more negative and may trigger systemic risks. The report of the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China (called the 20th CPC National Congress) pointed out that preventing and resolving financial risks remains a top priority. To this day, preventing corporate defaults is still a vital issue in maintaining the stability of finance and promoting the development of an economy. Using Chinese A-share listed companies in Shanghai and Shenzhen from 2009 to 2020 as a research sample, this study explores the impact of management’s macroeconomic cognition (MMC) on corporate default risk and conducts mechanism analysis and heterogeneity analysis of the relationship between MMC and corporate default risk. It is found that (1) the improvement of MMC ability has a significant impact on corporate default risk, and a one standard deviation increase in MMC is associated with an 8.3% decrease in corporate default risk. (2)Compared with state-owned enterprises, non-state-owned enterprises’ default risk is more strongly influenced by MMC. (3) In terms of transmission mechanism, MMC is conducive to improving the stability of enterprises’ operations and the quality of internal governance, which mitigates the risk of corporate default. (4) Corporate management’s incentives, financial constraints, and political connections can significantly moderate the relationship between MMC and default risk. The cyclicality and policy sensitivity of an industry that an enterprise belongs to also significantly moderate the relationship between MMC and default risk. From the emerging perspective of management perception, this study explores the impact of management perception on corporate default risk, which helps to advance the research on the consequences and mechanisms of macroeconomic policies affecting the transmission of micro-firm behavior. The findings of this study provide new ideas and references for enterprises, reminding them to pay attention to and give full play to the ability of managers and avoid enterprise risks in a targeted manner. Specifically, according to the needs of an enterprise, the enterprise owner should formulate and improve relevant supporting systems, such as monetary and equity incentives, to the management of the enterprise, as well as non-monetary incentives such as the sale of restricted shares. Further, the owner should pay attention to the cognitive level of managers, such as the organization of relevant content of staff training and employee competitions. The owner should also optimize the shareholding structure, adjust financing constraints, maintain political ties, and so on. Moreover, the owner should pay attention to industry characteristics, such as the economic cycle in which the industry is located and the industry’s sensitivity to policies. The owner should also give full play to MMC and other capabilities to strengthen the stability of corporate operations and internal governance, which would mitigate the potential risks of an enterprise. Second, the findings of this study provide new perspectives for investors to effectively identify and avoid investment risks. Investors should pay more attention to the ability of corporate managers such as macroeconomic cognition and predict the potential risks and risk-coping ability of a corporation. They also need to consider the nature of their property rights, financing constraints, political connections, and the cyclicality and policy sensitivity of the industry in their investment decisions. In addition, investors should use certain technical methods to analyze the “imprint” of corporate managers’ behaviors using nonfinancial information in conjunction with national policies and guidelines and then determine and predict the economic significance of corporate behavioral decisions. |
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