| ZOU Tieding,YIN Weice.Postponed Retirement, Grandparenting and Youth Employment[J].The Journal of quantitative and technical economics,2023,(9):157-177 |
| 延迟退休、隔代照料与青年人就业 |
| Postponed Retirement, Grandparenting and Youth Employment |
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| DOI： |
| 中文关键词: 延迟退休 隔代照料 青年人就业 就业意愿 |
| 英文关键词: Postponed Retirement Grandparenting Youth Employment Employment Intention |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 本文构建了一个包含隔代照料文化、干中学效应与人力资本代际传递的OLG模型，用于考察延迟退休对青年人就业的影响。研究发现，延迟退休对时间投入和物质投入两种形式隔代照料的抑制和促进作用，通过影响个体人力资本积累以及家庭生育数量与质量之间的替代关系，从就业意愿、就业能力和就业机会三个维度改变青年人的就业处境。随着延迟退休力度的加强，青年人的就业能力呈先上升后下降的“倒U”型变动趋势，就业意愿与就业机会则在总体上保持下降趋势。养老保险制度介入后，并没有改变延迟退休对青年人就业的影响方向，只是在不同制度安排下对三个分维度的影响出现了分化。其中，现收现付制下的就业意愿与就业机会要高于基金制，而基金制下的就业能力要高于现收现付制。幼儿照护支持体系不到位以及相关服务市场发育滞后，是协调老年人延迟退休与青年人就业关系的制约因素。从制度、政策和服务市场体系建设角度为青年人生育提供支持，是提升延迟退休政策效果、改善青年人就业处境的探索方向。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| In this study, delayed retirement and intergenerational care are introduced into the intergenerational overlap model of endogenous human capital accumulation, and the impact of delayed retirement on young people’s employment is examined. The study found that the impact of delayed retirement on youth employment was uncertain. On the one hand, delaying retirement will crowd out intergenerational care time and promote income from intergenerational care. The former increases the cost of childbirth for young people and decreases the willingness to have children, and under the substitution of quantity and quality, parents increase investment in their children’s education and promote the growth of human capital. In the latter, the rise in income from generational care and the increase in individual investment in education will promote the accumulation of human capital for young people, which will promote the employment of young people. However, delayed retirement has affected generational care mechanisms, increasing the burden of childbearing among young people and reducing their working hours, which not only inhibits their willingness to work but also prevents them from accumulating human capital at work. Moreover, the increase in fertility burden will lead to a decline in fertility and the population growth rate, which, when combined with the DMP theory, will have a negative impact on young people’s employment opportunities.Based on the previous text, employability, employment willingness, and employment opportunities are the three dimensions through which delayed retirement affects the employment situation of young people. Specifically, when the retirement policy is implemented, there would be three outcomes. Firstly, the time cost for young people to children care would increase, and the labor participation rate would decrease. From the mechanism of the learning-by-doing effect, this will inhibit the accumulation of human capital and improve the employment ability of young people.The simulation analysis reveals that if the retirement age continues to increase, the employability of young people will have an inverted U-shaped trend of first increasing and then decreasing. Secondly, the reduction in intergenerational care time for elderly people leads to young people taking on more family responsibilities, while the increase in economic support for children will create an income effect between labor and leisure time allocation, both of which will inhibit young people’s willingness to work. The simulation analysis reveals that for every additional year of delay in retirement age, the employment time of young people will be shortened by 0.575 years. When the retirement age is raised to 65 years, the willingness of young people to work will decrease by 12.4% over the next five years. Thirdly, the reduction in time invested in intergenerational care for the elderly will suppress fertility, while the increase in financial assistance in intergenerational care will promote fertility. According to the working mechanism of the DMP theory, the former would reduce employment opportunities for young people, while the latter would increase employment opportunities for them. The combined impact of the two aspects does not change the trend of delayed retirement reducing employment opportunities for young people. The simulation analysis reveals that if the retirement age is gradually raised to 65 years, the employment opportunities of young people will decrease from 0.441 jobs per capita to 0.386 jobs, with an overall decrease of 12.5%. |
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