| WANG Yuelong,CAI Yulong,TANG Yuchen.Expectations of Housing Price Appreciation, Wealth Illusion and Household Consumption: Evidence from the “National Article Six”[J].The Journal of quantitative and technical economics,2023,(9):116-137 |
| 房价升值预期、财富幻觉与家庭消费——基于《国六条》的证据 |
| Expectations of Housing Price Appreciation, Wealth Illusion and Household Consumption: Evidence from the “National Article Six” |
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| 中文关键词: 预期住房价值 财富幻觉 居民消费 断点回归 |
| 英文关键词: Expectations of Housing Price Wealth Illusion Household Consumption Regression Discontinuity Design |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 预期对未来的房价变化和由此引发的消费变动有着非常重要的影响，本文通过合并2010~2017年中国家庭金融调查（CHFS）和中国家庭追踪调查（CFPS）数据，基于2006年5月出台的《关于调整住房供应结构稳定住房价格的意见》（以下简称《国六条》），利用断点回归方法研究了由于《国六条》中税收和信贷的优惠，提高了对90平方米以下中小户型商品房的未来升值预期，从而导致潜在住房财富增加对家户消费支出的影响。研究发现，预期的住房价格增加1%，会显著地促进家庭消费支出上升1.07%，并且家庭对住房价格的过度预期造成了“财富幻觉”，这会进一步强化房价预期对家庭消费支出的影响。从分项消费上看，房价升值预期主要提高了食品、衣着、医疗保健等支出，一定程度上促进了消费结构升级。本文进一步发现潜在住房财富的增加并没有改变家户的信贷约束，这可能与我国不完善的信贷市场以及传统的消费信贷观念有很大的关系。最后本文认为在后疫情时代，合理的房价上涨预期管理，对实现经济增长和房价稳定的双赢具有重要意义。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| With the rapid economic development, China’s real estate market has experienced significant growth. Since 2003, housing prices have been rising rapidly, leading to a strong general expectation of future price increases among the population. In response, the government has implemented a series of policies aimed at controlling real estate prices and cooling down the market. Among these policies, the “Opinions on Adjusting the Housing Supply Structure and Stabilizing Housing Prices” (referred to as “National Article Six”) and other differential housing control policies targeting purchase area and holding period were introduced. Since May 2006, small and medium-sized residential properties below 90 square meters have faced significant appreciation expectations due to the lower down payment ratio, reduced business tax, and stamp duty rates on future transactions. This was the first sudden policy of differential control based on purchase area and was not widely anticipated by the public, thus having a noticeable impact on housing prices.By combining data from the China Household Finance Survey (CHFS) and the China Family Panel Studies (CFPS) conducted from 2010 to 2017, this study utilizes the National Article Six policy implemented in May 2006. It employs a regression discontinuity design based on housing area to investigate the impact of potential housing wealth increase on household consumption expenditure for small and medium-sized residential properties below 90 square meters. The tax and credit incentives provided by the National Article Six policy have heightened the expectations of future appreciation for this type of housing, thereby influencing household consumption expenditure. The study finds that a 1% increase in expected housing prices significantly stimulates a 1.07% increase in household consumption expenditure. Moreover, excessive expectations of housing prices create a “wealth illusion,” further strengthening this effect. In terms of the specific consumption categories, the rising expected housing prices primarily drive increased expenditures on food, clothing, and healthcare and, to some extent, facilitate consumption structure upgrading. Based on the estimated impact of expected housing prices on consumption and the contribution of consumption to economic growth, if the annual growth rate of per capita disposable income for urban residents in China from 2007 to 2020, which averaged at 9.42%, is taken as the upper limit for housing price growth, the GDP growth rate should be further lowered to 4.8% in 2022 to achieve the macroeconomic control objective of “stable housing prices.” The study also finds that the expectations of rising housing prices are mainly prevalent in the early years following the sudden introduction of the policy. Over time, as the policy becomes anticipated by the public, its long-term impact on consumption diminishes, which confirms the viewpoint of the rational expectations school of thought that all expected macroeconomic policies are ineffective.The mechanism analysis indicates that the increase in potential housing wealth has not altered household credit constraints, which may be closely related to the imperfect credit market and traditional consumer credit beliefs in China.This study’s main contributions to existing literature are as follows. First, existing studies mostly focus on the subjective expectations of housing prices, which suffer from measurement errors, omitted variables, and endogeneity issues. The exogenous policy shock resulting from the National Article Six policy in 2006 led to residents developing appreciation expectations for housing of different sizes. Based on this, this study rigorously identifies the wealth effect of changes in housing price expectations on household consumption. Second, the study examines the less explored “unrealized wealth effect.” Unlike the study by Fan et al. (2022) that investigates unrealized housing prices resulting from government-imposed housing transaction bans, which are passively formed by the market, this study focuses on the government’s differential housing control policy based on housing areas. The policy’s favorable factors for small and medium-sized residential properties actively induce residents’ expectations of rising housing prices, making it more acceptable to the market compared with the direct price controls in the Xiong’an New Area, which are generally not permitted in a market economy. Therefore, the conclusions of this study have greater external validity. Lastly, this study not only examines the wealth effect of expected housing price increases on consumption but also provides insights on how to maintain China’s high-speed economic growth while adhering to the principle of domestic circulation. By employing appropriate management of expected housing price increases and adopting a macro-control strategy of “stable housing prices, stable low prices, and stable expectations” to stimulate consumption, this study offers a valuable reference for achieving both economic growth and housing price stability. |
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