| ZHANG Shaojun,DING Xiaoqiang.Marginal Decomposition of Inter-provincial Outflows and Exports in China: Based on the Dual Dimensions of Trade Volume and Market Share[J].The Journal of quantitative and technical economics,2023,(9):5-26 |
| 中国省际调出与出口增长的边际分解——基于贸易总额和市场份额的双重维度 |
| Marginal Decomposition of Inter-provincial Outflows and Exports in China: Based on the Dual Dimensions of Trade Volume and Market Share |
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| 中文关键词: 省际调出 相对增长 市场份额 集约边际 扩展边际 |
| 英文关键词: Inter-provincial Outflows Relative Growth Market Share Intensive Margin Extensive Margin |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 党的二十大报告提出要“增强国内国际两个市场两种资源联动效应”。省际调出与出口分别作为经济内循环与经济外循环的重要组成，系统考察其增长模式可以帮助中国更好地统筹“国际国内两个市场、两种资源”，加快建成“以国内大循环为主体、国内国际双循环相互促进的新发展格局”。为此，本文构建了省际调出增长的边际分解框架，从贸易总额和市场份额两个维度，考察1987~2017年中国省际调出的增长模式，并与中国出口的增长模式进行比较。研究发现：中国各省份省际调出总额的增长主要归因于集约边际，扩展边际的作用为负，其增长模式亟需实现从“数额型”增长向“种类型”增长的转变；沿海省份省际调出总额的增长模式优于内陆省份。扩展边际收缩对中国各省份省际调出总额增长的贡献大于对出口总额增长的贡献，反映出各省份出口总额的增长模式优于其省际调出总额的增长模式。中国各省份的省际调出市场份额总体上呈现下降趋势，体现了来自国外的进口不断侵蚀各省份省际调出所占的市场份额，且这一趋势在扩展边际和集约边际两方面均有体现；沿海省份省际调出市场份额的增长模式优于内陆省份。中国各省份省际调出市场份额的平均下降速度，是其出口市场份额平均下降速度的1.832倍，且各省份出口市场份额的增长模式优于其省际调出市场份额的增长模式。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| In recent years, the complicated changes in domestic and international situations have revealed that China’s export-led growth model has been unsustainable. The report of the 20th CPC National Congress pointed out that “we must adhere to the theme of promoting high-quality development, and organically combine the implementation of the strategy of expanding domestic demand with the deepening of supply-side structural reform,” “relying on the advantages of China’s ultra-large scale market, attracting global resource factors with domestic circulation, and enhancing the linkage effect of two resources in both domestic and international markets.” These will speed up China’s building of “a new development dynamic with the domestic economy as the mainstay and the domestic economy and international engagement providing mutual reinforcement.” As China’s provinces vary greatly in terms of natural conditions, factor endowments, and economic development, the gains from inter-provincial trade are huge. Developing inter-provincial trade would not only promote the formation of a strong domestic market but also build a complete domestic demand system. Moreover, it can give full play to the market effect of the home country and cultivate the dynamic comparative advantage of China’s participation in international cooperation and competition under the new situation. A systematic study of China’s inter-provincial outflows and export growth model can reflect the effectiveness of China’s supply-side structural reform and can help China better achieve high-quality development.This study constructs a marginal decomposition framework for the growth of inter-provincial outflows and uses 7 years input-output tables of China for 30 provinces to explore and compare the impact of growth patterns of China’s inter-provincial outflows and exports on the two dimensions of trade volume and market share from 1987 to 2017. The main findings are as follows. First, the growth of the total volume of inter-provincial outflows in China is mainly attributed to the intensive margin; the extensive margin just generates a little effect; and its growth pattern needs to change from the “amount type” growth to the “species type” growth. Moreover, the growth pattern of coastal provinces’ total inter-provincial outflows is better than that of inland provinces. Second, the contribution of the extensive margin to the growth of China’s total inter-provincial outflows is greater than that of China’s total export, which indicates that the growth pattern of China’s total inter-provincial outflows is better than total export. Third, the market share of China’s inter-provincial outflows has a downward trend, which indicates that imports from abroad have continuously eroded the market share of China’s inter-provincial outflows, and this trend is reflected in both the extensive and intensive margins. Moreover, the growth pattern of the market share of the inter-provincial outflows of coastal provinces is better than that of inland provinces. Fourth, the average drop speed of the market share of China’s inter-provincial outflows is about 1.83 times larger than that of China’s export market share. Further, the growth pattern of the market share of China’s inter-provincial outflows is better than that of China’s export market share.The contributions of this study are as follows. First, this study extends the export marginal decomposition framework to the research on the growth of inter-provincial outflows and constructs a series of relative indicators. This provides a basis for comparing and analyzing the contribution rate of binary marginal changes to inter-provincial outflows and export growth. Second, this is a novel study to use inter-provincial trade data on 30 provinces in China to comprehensively and systematically investigate the growth model of China’s inter-provincial outflows from 1987 to 2017 through marginal decomposition and make a comparative analysis with China’s export growth. Finally, this study not only describes the growth mode of China’s inter-provincial outflows from the dimension of total trade but also describes it from the dimension of market share, which forms a multi-dimensional understanding of the growth source and growth prospect of China’s inter-provincial trade. |
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