| SHI Shaobin,JU Zhenyuan.House Price Effect of “Vacating Cage to Change Birds”:Using the Relocation and Transformation of Old Industrial Areas as an Example[J].The Journal of quantitative and technical economics,2023,(6):113-132 |
| “腾笼换鸟”的房价效应：以老工业区搬迁改造为例 |
| House Price Effect of “Vacating Cage to Change Birds”:Using the Relocation and Transformation of Old Industrial Areas as an Example |
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| DOI： |
| 中文关键词: 城区老工业区 搬迁改造 外部效应 房价 双重差分模型 |
| 英文关键词: Old Industrial Area in Urban Area Relocation and Transformation Externalities House Prices DID |
| 基金项目:本文得到国家社科基金项目（22BJY024）的资助。 |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 党的二十大报告指出“高质量发展是全面建设社会主义现代化国家的首要任务”。城区老工业区搬迁改造是城市“腾笼换鸟”、促进区域协调、推动高质量发展的重要举措，本文将济南东部城区老工业区搬迁改造作为研究对象，使用济南市2010~2017年二手房挂牌交易数据，构建双重差分模型考察这一政策实施对区域房价的影响。研究发现：城区老工业区搬迁改造给所在区域的房屋带来了显著的溢价效应，溢价程度约为4.6%，且这一结论通过了多项稳健性检验。异质性分析结果显示搬迁改造对房价的影响在时间上呈现持续显著增长趋势、在空间上呈现随距离增加而减弱趋势；潜在机制分析发现搬迁改造会通过促进人口聚集、改善公共服务供给来影响房价。此外，进一步分析表明城区老工业区搬迁改造对房租起到了抬高效应，但对房屋挂牌交易数量不存在显著影响。本文的研究结论为进一步推进城市更新决策、改善民生福祉、实现共同富裕提供借鉴参考。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| The relocation and transformation of old industrial zones in urban areas is an important measure of “vacating cage to change birds” and achieving high-quality regional development, but only a few articles have empirically evaluated the effect of this policy. In view of this, this paper takes the relocation and transformation of the old industrial zone in the eastern urban area of Jinan as the research object and uses second-hand housing listing transaction data in Jinan from 2010 to 2017 to construct a difference-in-difference model to investigate the impact of the implementation of this policy on regional housing prices. It is found that the relocation and renovation of old industrial areas in urban areas have brought a significant premium effect on houses in the area, with a premium degree of about 4.6%, and this conclusion passed a number of robustness tests. The analysis results of spatiotemporal heterogeneity reveal that the impact of relocation and renovation on housing prices has a continuous and significant growth trend in time and weakens with the increase in spatial distance. The analysis of potential mechanisms reveals that relocation and renovation affect housing prices by promoting population agglomeration and improving the supply of public services. In addition, further analysis reveals that the relocation and renovation of old industrial areas in urban areas have played a major role in raising rents but has no significant impact on the number of housing listings.The marginal contributions of this paper lie in three aspects. First, the research topic related to this paper is “urban renewal policy and housing price.” Through the review of existing literature, we find that no study has researched the impact of urban renewal policy on housing price externality based on the urban renewal policy of old industrial areas in urban areas. Therefore, the topic of this paper is a helpful supplement to the relevant research on urban renewal issues. Second, there are a few studies on industrial areas, most of which focus on the existence of the Not In My Back Yard effect. In this paper, a difference in difference model is designed to empirically analyze the dynamic effect of housing prices on the relocation and reconstruction of old industrial areas in urban areas using house price data, thereby expanding the research on industrial area reconstruction in terms of research design. Third, compared with the more intuitive macroeconomic effect, the research conclusion of this paper provides a reference from the perspective of private goods for the reasonable evaluation of the policy effect of the relocation and reconstruction of old industrial areas in urban areas and provides support for further promoting urban renewal and realizing high-quality economic development by “changing the cage for the bird.”The conclusions of this paper also have rich policy implications. First, we should continue to promote the relocation and reconstruction policy of urban old industrial areas and expand the scope of urban old industrial areas for relocation and reconstruction. Second, we should make full use of the externalities of relocation and reconstruction projects; coordinate the urban industrial zone relocation and reconstruction planning, especially the time and space arrangement of intra-urban industrial zone reconstruction and other urban renewal projects; and strengthen coordination among regions, forming scale effect of relocation and reconstruction and maximizing the positive externalities of relocation and reconstruction policies on regional development. Third, we should do a good job in the service management of the floating population, enhance the sense of service, and protect the legitimate rights and interests of the floating population to improve the happiness of the floating population in the region and their willingness to stay. Fourth, we should do our best to ensure housing security. We should accelerate the establishment of a housing system featuring multi-agent supply, multi-channel support, and both rental and purchase benefits. We should support housing policies, such as purchase and loan restrictions, higher down payments, and equal rental and purchase rights to keep housing prices stable, ensure housing security, and improve people's quality of life. |
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