文章摘要
Zhang Yanqun,Wan Haiyuan.Determinants and Forecast on the Urban rural Household Income Gap in China[J].The Journal of quantitative and technical economics,2019,(3):59-74
我国城乡居民收入差距的决定因素和趋势预测
Determinants and Forecast on the Urban rural Household Income Gap in China
  
DOI：
中文关键词: 城乡居民  收入差距  决定因素  宏观经济  预测模型
英文关键词: Urban and Rural  Income Gap  Determinants  Macro economy  Forecasting Model
基金项目:本文得到国家社会科学基金一般项目（17BJY027）、中国社会科学院创新工程项目、北京师范大学学科交叉项目（312231104）、北京市中国特色社会主义理论体系研究中心重点项目（17SRAL001）和国家社科基金重大项目（16ZDA025、18VBN016）的资助。
Author NameAffiliation
Zhang Yanqun Institute of Quantitative & Technical Economics,Chinese Academy of Social Sciences；China Institute for Income Distribution 
Wan Haiyuan Business School，Beijing Normal University；China Institute for Income Distribution 
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中文摘要:
      研究目标：分析我国城乡收入差距的长期决定因素，并对其未来走势进行预测。研究方法：建立理论模型，识别出城乡收入差距的长期因素；运用时间序列计量经济学模型，基于1981~2016的年度数据对城乡收入差距进行实证分析；结合宏观经济预测模型，对城乡收入差距在2017~2030年的走势进行预测。研究发现：第一产业与第二、第三产业劳动生产率的比值，农村人口中从事第一产业的比重，以及农民工与城镇职工的工资差距等，是我国城乡收入差距的长期决定因素。在宏观经济增长进入“新常态”，城镇化水平继续提高的背景下，未来我国城乡收入差距将继续目前下降的走势，但仍处于较高水平。研究创新：识别出城乡收入差距的长期决定因素，并对城乡收入差距进行预测。研究价值：为制定收入分配政策提供依据。
英文摘要:
      Research Objectives: Analyze the long run determinants of the urban rural household income gap, and forecast its development Research Methods: Theoretical model, based on empirical investigations for the determinants of urban rural household income gap is conducted using the annual data 1981~2016 Combining the macroeconometric model, the movement of the income gap is predicted for the period of 2017~2030 Research Findings: The determinants of the income gap are the ratio of the labor productivity of agricultural to the non agricultural industry, ratio of rural labor in the agricultural industry to the total rural labor, and the wage gap between urban and rural employees Under the circumstance that Chinas economy is entering the “New Normal”, and China is in the process of urbanization, we predict the urban rural household income gap will continue declining, but still stay in a high level Research Innovations: The determinants of the urban rural household income gap are identified, and its movement is predicted Research Value: Implications for the income distribution policies
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