| 姚东旻,熊国豪,高洋.扩张性财政支出如何提振居民消费——基于存量—流量一致性模型的效应模拟与机制分析[J].数量经济技术经济研究,2026,(7):209-234 | | 扩张性财政支出如何提振居民消费——基于存量—流量一致性模型的效应模拟与机制分析 | | How Expansionary Fiscal Expenditure Boosts Household Consumption: Effect Simulation and Mechanism AnalysisBased on a Stock-flow Consistent Model | | | | DOI： | | 中文关键词: 存量—流量一致性模型 扩张性财政支出 居民消费 财政规则 | | 英文关键词: Stock-flow Consistent Model Expansionary Fiscal Expenditure Household Consumption Fiscal Rules | | 基金项目: | | | 中文摘要: | | 消费是经济增长的起点和最终动力，面对总需求不足的突出矛盾，扩张性财政支出已成为提振居民消费的重要政策工具。本文系统分析了不同扩张性财政支出政策对居民消费的短期与长期政策效应及其作用机制。研究发现：第一，在债务融资模式下，无论采取政府购买还是家庭补贴，扩张性财政支出均能在一定程度上提升实际消费和消费率，家庭补贴的短期刺激效果更为显著，政府购买则具有更强的长期拉动作用。第二，当家庭边际消费倾向较低时，扩张性财政支出在短期内对居民消费的提振效应更加明显，且政府购买的长期优势会显著增强。第三，政府债务还本率的下降与政策冲击持续时间的延长，均会强化扩张性财政支出政策对居民消费的促进作用。第四，与税收融资方式相比，债务融资方式更能放大扩张性财政支出政策对居民消费的提振效应。基于上述结论，本文认为应正确认识并处理消费与投资之间的关系，同时转变财政政策理念，从平衡财政转向功能财政，科学认识并利用好政府的举债空间。 | | 英文摘要: | | Consumption is both the starting point and the ultimate driver of economic growth. To address the prominent challenge of insufficient aggregate demand, expansionary fiscal expenditure has become an important policy instrument to stimulate household consumption. This paper constructs a five-sector Stock-flow Consistent (SFC) model to systematically analyze the short-term and long-term effects of different forms of expansionary fiscal expenditure on household consumption, as well as the underlying mechanisms through which these effects are transmitted.
First, regardless of whether expansionary fiscal policies take the form of government purchases or household transfers, they are capable to increase both actual consumption and the consumption rate to a certain extent. However, while household transfers tend to generate a more immediate stimulative effect on consumption in the short term, government purchases exhibit a stronger and more sustained influence over the long term. This distinction reflects the different channels through which these two types of fiscal interventions operate: household transfers directly increase disposable income, while government purchases indirectly raise household income through their impact on wages and asset returns.
Second, the effectiveness of expansionary fiscal expenditure is influenced by the marginal propensity to consume(MPC) among households. When the MPC is relatively low, the short-term consumption-enhancing effect of the fiscal policy is more pronounced, and the long-term advantages of government purchases become increasingly significant. This result highlights the importance to consider the heterogeneity of household consumption behavior when designing fiscal measures aimed at boosting aggregate demand.
Third, both a reduction in the repayment rates of government debt and an extension of the duration of fiscal policy shocks tend to strengthen the stimulative impact of expansionary fiscal expenditure on household consumption. Interestingly, when government debt repayment rates are relatively high, household transfers may even have a counterproductive effect on consumption. This implies that fiscal authorities need to carefully balance the design of short-term and long-term fiscal interventions to avoid unintended dampening effects, particularly in contexts where debt sustainability considerations are binding.
Fourth, comparing financing methods, it was found that fiscal policies funded through debt issuance appear to have a more pronounced effect on household consumption than those financed through tax revenue. This suggests that, under certain macroeconomic conditions, the government’s borrowing capacity can be leveraged to enhance the effectiveness of fiscal interventions, without necessarily crowding out private consumption.
The contributions of this study are as follows. First, this study constructed an SFC model framework that is specifically tailored to the characteristics of fiscal expenditure in China, thereby expanding the analytical perspective on the way in which fiscal policy affects household consumption. Second, this study explicitly included the potential inhibitory effects of government debt burden on microeconomic behavior into the model, and innovatively designed two fiscal rules-one based on debt financing and the other on tax financing. This allowed for a systematic comparison of policy effects under different financing modalities, providing evidence that challenges the universal applicability of the Ricardian Equivalence proposition. Third, this study highlighted the critical role of household marginal propensity to consume, government debt repayment rates, and duration of policy shocks in shaping the effectiveness of fiscal expenditure, offering insights into the mechanisms through which fiscal policy can optimally stimulate consumption. | | 查看全文 相关附件： 下载数据代码附录 |
| | |
