| 周宏伟,张露文,刘曙光.专利出海与全球产业链安全——基于外部风险敞口的视角[J].数量经济技术经济研究,2026,(7):31-55 | | 专利出海与全球产业链安全——基于外部风险敞口的视角 | | Patenting Abroad and Global Industrial Chain Security: Based on the Perspective of External Risk Exposure | | | | DOI： | | 中文关键词: 专利出海 产业链安全 外部风险敞口 技术升级 全球创新网络 不确定性冲击 | | 英文关键词: Industrial Chain Security External Risk Exposure Technological Upgrading Global Innovation Network Uncertainty Shock | | 基金项目: | | | 中文摘要: | | 积极推动专利出海，完善开放创新生态，是有效抑制产业链潜在外部风险、构建更具韧性国际分工体系的重要力量。本文基于外部风险敞口的视角，利用1995~2020年76个国家17个制造业构建“国家—行业—目的国—年份”多维面板数据，探讨了专利出海对全球产业链安全的影响与作用机制。研究发现，专利出海能够显著缩小产业链外部风险敞口，促进产业链安全发展，这一效应在目的国为发展中国家、专利密集型行业、复杂产业链活动、间接供应方式及数字技术专利中更为明显。机制检验表明，专利出海能够促进国内中间品技术升级，通过国内中间品质量跃迁效应与种类扩张效应推动产业链本土化与多元化，有效缩小产业链外部风险敞口。进一步分析发现，深度融入全球创新网络有助于缩小产业链外部风险敞口，减少产业链外部依赖；不确定性冲击越大，专利出海对产业链外部风险敞口的抑制效应越强。本文结论可以为推动自主创新“走出去”、深化海外专利布局与全球创新网络以及构建安全稳定的产业链供应链体系提供重要启示。 | | 英文摘要: | | In recent years, under external shocks such as natural disasters, trade frictions, public health emergencies, and geopolitical conflicts, the vulnerability and uncertainty of the globalized production model have exacerbated, and frequent disruptions to industrial and supply chains have occurred. Hence, the issue of how to effectively mitigate the risks of “decoupling and chain rupture” and build a safe, stable, self-reliant, and controllable industrial and supply chain system, has become a focal concern and is being urgently addressed by all countries. As an important element of innovative internationalization capacity, patenting abroad not only helps to foster new advantages in international competition, but also accelerates the optimization of the division of labor in the global industrial chain, boosting the secure development of industrial chains.
By adopting the perspective of external risk exposure of the industrial chain, this paper explores the impact of patenting abroad on global industrial chain security, providing theoretical explanations and empirical evidence to advance the “going global” of independent innovation and establish a safe, stable, self-reliant, and controllable industrial and supply chain system. The results indicate that patenting abroad can significantly reduce the exposure of the industrial chain to external risks and boost the secure development of the industrial chain. This effect is more pronounced in those scenarios where destination countries are developing economies, in patent-intensive industries, for complex industrial chain activities, under indirect supply modes, and for digital technology patents. The results of the mechanism tests revealed that patenting abroad promotes the technological upgrading of domestic intermediate goods; moreover,it drives the localization and diversification of industrial chains through the quality upgrading effect and the variety expansion effect of domestic intermediate goods, thereby effectively narrowing the exposure of the industrial chain to external risks, with an insignificant effect on relative price reduction. Further analysis indicates that a deep integration into the global innovation network helps reduce the exposure of the industrial chain to external risks and its external dependence; in particular, the greater the uncertainty shock, the stronger the inhibitory effect of patenting abroad on the exposure of the industrial chain to external risks.
The contributions of this study to existing research are as follows. First, this study systematically investigated the impact of patenting abroad on the exposure of the industrial chain to external risks at the country-industry level, thereby expanding the scope of existing research in the fields of patenting abroad and industrial and supply chain security. Existing literature mainly adopted the perspective of “ex-post resilience restructuring” to examine the impact of patenting abroad on the resistance, resilience, and long-term development capacity of enterprises’ transnational supply chains, paying insufficient attention to the exposure of the industrial chain to external risks as an ex-ante variable. From the perspective of ex-ante risk prevention and control, this study took patenting abroad as a critical measure to mitigate the potential external risks of industrial chains. In this way, it was possible to obtain a better reflectionof the potential degree of exposure of industrial chains to diverse external shocks, thereby providing more targeted empirical evidence for industrial chain risk management and security construction. Second, this study constructed a theoretical model of the way in which patenting abroad affects the exposure of the industrial chain to external risks, and clarified the mechanism chain through which patenting abroad converges external dependence and reduces risk exposure by promoting technological progress, improving supply quality, and expanding alternative sets from the dimensions of quality upgrading, variety expansion, and relative price reduction. Third, based on the comprehensive collection of cross-border patent application and citation data, this study constructed an indicator of patenting abroad intensity at the country-industry-destination country-year level, and measured the centrality indicator of country-industry integration into the global innovation network via the complex network method. In this way, it provided an operable data sample and indicator system to accurately identify the impact of patenting abroad and the deepening of the global innovation network on the exposure of the industrial chain to external risks. Fourth, this study analyzed the impact of patenting abroad on the exposure of the industrial chain to external risks under uncertainty shocks. The findings suggest that patenting abroad can exert an ex-ante risk aversion effect and reduce the industrial chain risk transmission triggered by external uncertainty shocks. In this way, this study offered a more comprehensive research perspective and policy implications to mitigate the potential external risks of industrial chains and advance the safe and stable development of industrial and supply chains through the global strategic layout of patents in the context of multiple uncertainties. | | 查看全文 相关附件： 下载数据代码附录 |
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