| 谢贞发,张好,王震,彭鑫.新一轮增值税分成改革、结构性财政激励与地区商品供需适配关系——兼论促消费的制度机制建设[J].数量经济技术经济研究,2026,(4):158-182 |
| 新一轮增值税分成改革、结构性财政激励与地区商品供需适配关系——兼论促消费的制度机制建设 |
| On the New Round of VAT Sharing Reform, Structural Fiscal Incentives, and Regional Commodity Supply-Demand Adaptation |
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| DOI： |
| 中文关键词: 增值税分成改革 结构性财政激励 重生产轻消费 商品供需适配 |
| 英文关键词: 2016 VAT Sharing Reform Structural Fiscal Incentive Prioritize Production over Consumption Supply-Demand Matching |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 强大的国内市场是实现中国式现代化的战略路径，探索影响当前地区商品供需适配程度的体制动因有助于完善促进消费的制度机制建设。2016 年增值税分成改革对地方政府产生了重要的结构性分成激励，叠加增值税收入分享的“生产地原则”，形成了地方政府“重生产、轻消费”的政策选择，是影响地区商品供需适配程度的潜在体制性因素。基于 2016 年增值税分成改革实践，本文构建强度双重差分模型进行实证检验发现，分成激励限制了地区商品供需适配程度提升，该效应在第三产业占比更高、增值税依赖程度更高的地区更明显。机制分析表明，分成激励使地方政府通过低价出让工业用地、税费优惠、增加生产性支出等方式扩张了商品生产，但生产端刺激与产出扩张未能带来居民收入水平和消费能力的同步增长，进而影响地区商品供给能力与消费能力的适配关系。本文研究为完善有利于供需协调的增值税分享规则、优化共享税分享比例及深化下一轮财税体制改革提供了重要的理论参考。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| As a fundamental contradiction in the operation of the market economy，the degree of coordination between supply and demand directly determines the sustainability and resilience of China’s high-quality economic development. Factors such as the evolution of the principal social contradiction and the deterioration of the international political and economic environment have led to relatively insufficient domestic demand and a decline in external demand. The situation of strong supply and relatively weak demand is an important issue confronting China’s economic operation， necessitating urgent mitigation through institutional and mechanistic reforms. Although the existing literature primarily focuses on the impact of various policies on consumption， it relatively neglects the fiscal institutional factors influencing regional supply-demand dynamics.Based on the fiscal incentive theory and leveraging the structural incentive characteristics of the 2016 VAT sharing reform， this study employs an intensity difference-in-differences （DID） model to empirically analyze the role of China’s largest tax category-the VAT sharing system-in regional supply-demand matching. This analysis aims to provide insights for refining the new VAT sharing rules to enhance supply-demand coordination，optimizing the sharing ratios of shared taxes， and deepening the new round of fiscal and tax reforms.The 2016 VAT sharing reform is a pivotal moment in the deepening of China’s fiscal and tax system， exhibiting two typical institutional features. First， in this reform， the sharing ratio for local governments from industries originally subject to VAT increased，while that from industries originally subject to business tax significantly decreased. This “one increase， one decrease” structural adjustment in fiscal incentives directly impacted the tax benefits local governments derived from different industries， generating important structural sharing incentives for local governments. Coupled with the “production place principle” of VAT revenue sharing， it fostered local government behaviors and policy preferences favoring production over consumption， which is a potential institutional factor exacerbating regional supply-demand disparities. Second， the reform continued the “unified leadership， tiered management” model of China’s fiscal system reform， granting provincial governments the authority to adjust the tax sharing ratios for governments below the provincial level. This resulted in significantly differentiated fiscal incentive intensities across provinces， providing a well-suited quasi-natural experiment for identifying the fiscal incentive effects of this sharing reform.Based on the practical context of the 2016 VAT sharing reform， this study constructs an intensity DID model to empirically test the impact of this sharing reform on regional commodity supply-demand matching. The study finds that sharing incentives reduces the degree of regional supply-demand matching， with this effect being more pronounced in regions with a higher proportion of the tertiary industry and greater reliance on VAT revenue. Mechanism analysis indicates that these sharing incentives lead local governments to promote the entry of commodity production enterprises and stimulate the output growth of existing local enterprises through means such as transferring industrial land at low prices，offering tax and fee preferences， and increasing production-related expenditures， thereby driving the expansion of local commodity production. However， this output expansion is not accompanied by a synchronous increase in residents’ income levels. Furthermore， the relative reduction in livelihood-related expenditures suppresses the growth of local residents’ consumption capacity and spending， thereby leading to a relative decline in the degree of supply-demand matching.The contributions of this study are primarily threefold. First， it analyzes the underlying fiscal incentive logic behind regional commodity supply-demand matching from the perspective of the fiscal and tax system， revealing the fiscal incentive roots of the mismatch between local commodity production and consumption. Second， it emphasizes the fiscal incentive logic and mechanism through which the sharing system of VAT-China’s largest tax category-influences the local government， particularly its institutional incentive effects on regional production development and consumer market construction. Third， it innovatively constructs a measurement indicator for regional commodity supply-demand matching， thereby overcoming the limitation of the existing literature that often remains at the level of theoretical deduction or qualitative analysis and providing an important reference indicator for further research on market supply-demand disparities. |
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