| 王晓东,汤玉刚,刘亚南.换购住房退税政策、存量住房消费与市场流动性[J].数量经济技术经济研究,2026,(4):105-128 |
| 换购住房退税政策、存量住房消费与市场流动性 |
| Home Replacement Tax Refund Policy,Housing Consumption in the Existing-home Market,and Market Liquidity |
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| 中文关键词: 住房消费 换购住房退税 交易周期 住房过滤 |
| 英文关键词: Housing Consumption Home Replacement Tax Refund Time on Market Housing Filtering |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 在扩大内需与提振消费的政策背景下，降低存量住房交易成本、激活改善型换购需求，不仅是提升二手房市场周转效率的重要途径，也是推动房地产市场高质量发展的重要举措。本文以上海市换购住房个人所得税退税政策为准自然实验，基于二手房微观交易数据，采用双重差分方法识别政策对交易周期、价格以及市场活跃度的影响。结果表明，政策实施后交易周期显著缩短，小区月度成交量上升，挂牌量同步上升且增幅更大，显示政策能够同时推动卖方入市与成交端活跃，并通过“挂牌—匹配—成交”链条提升市场流动性。与此同时，成交均价温和下行。异质性分析发现，价格调整主要集中于面积较小、房龄较老、价格较低、卧室数量较少的刚需属性住房，改善属性较强的高端区间价格相对稳定。本文从交易链条与流动性视角，为交易环节税收优惠政策如何促进住房消费提供了微观证据，并为相应的政策优化提供参考。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| Amid China’s policy efforts to expand domestic demand and strengthen household consumption， housing-related consumption in the existing home market is an important channel. In inventory-dominated housing markets， replacement purchases are often constrained by transaction frictions and the retiming of the “sell-old， buy-new”sequence under the one-year repurchase deadline. Therefore， policies that reduce transaction-stage tax burdens may influence not only whether households undertake replacement purchases but also the timing of transactions， having implications for market liquidity， activity， and prices. This study examines Shanghai’s personal income tax （PIT）refund policy for home replacement purchases as a quasi-natural experiment. The policy allows households to reclaim the PIT paid on the sale of an owner-occupied home，provided that a new home is purchased within one year in the same city. By lowering effective transaction costs at the selling stage and imposing a one-year repurchase deadline， the policy directly targets households with replacement demand and creates incentives for both initiating and retiming housing transactions. These institutional features reveal that the policy may affect market outcomes through multiple channels， including turnover speed， entry into the market， and the composition of transacted units.Using micro-level second-hand housing transaction records from Shanghai， this study investigates the effects of the policy on three dimensions of the housing market. First， it analyzes market liquidity， measured by time on market （TOM）， which captures how quickly homes are sold. Second， it examines market activity using neighborhood-month transaction volumes and neighborhood-month new listings， reflecting realized demand and supply entry， respectively. Third， it evaluates changes in average transaction prices and potential heterogeneity across housing segments. Empirically， the analysis adopts a difference-in-differences framework combined with an event study specification. This approach exploits the timing of the policy implementation to compare outcomes before and after the reform while tracing the dynamic adjustment of market responses. The event study design also allows the analysis to assess whether policy effects are concentrated around periods closely tied to the one-year repurchase requirement. The results indicate that the policy leads to a substantial improvement in market liquidity. TOM declines by approximately 22%~25%， indicating faster turnover in the existing-home market.Moreover， market activity increases significantly. Neighborhood-month transaction volumes rise， and new listings expand， with the increase in listings being larger in magnitude. This pattern implies that the policy stimulates both completed transactions and entry into the market， with supply-side responses at the listing stage reacting strongly. The evidence points to a pronounced expansion in market activity alongside faster turnover. The average transaction prices exhibit a modest decline following the policy. This average effect masks substantial heterogeneity across housing segments. Price declines are concentrated among units with smaller floor area， older housing age， lower price levels， and fewer bedrooms.In contrast， price stabilization or increases are observed only for a limited subset of high-end units. These heterogeneous responses indicate that aggregate price movements partly reflect compositional changes in transacted housing units rather than uniform price adjustments across the market.In addition， the empirical findings are consistent with a mechanism in which reduced transaction-stage tax burdens， together with the one-year repurchase deadline， facilitate the initiation and retiming of replacement plans. By easing constraints faced by households with replacement demand and encouraging market entry， the policy can increase liquidity and activity while altering the composition of transactions in a manner consistent with housing filtering. The joint increase in listings and transactions， combined with faster turnover， implies that the policy operates primarily through changes in transaction frictions and timing incentives， rather than primarily through price changes. Under the housing filtering mechanism， sellers first dispose of their homes for basic needs before purchasing upgraded properties. This occurs because the policy leads to a greater increase in the supply of basic needs housing， causing prices to decline due to a drop in the average quality of homes on the market. The study’s findings fill a gap in the literature on the filtering mechanism within China’s housing market. Overall， this study provides micro-level evidence on how transaction-stage tax relief affects liquidity， activity， and prices in a mature， inventory-dominated housing market. The findings clarify the margins through which replacement-oriented tax incentives influence market outcomes and provide empirical evidence for understanding how policies aimed at facilitating housing transactions can contribute to housing consumption and improved market turnover. More importantly，using China as a unique context， this study examines the application of the housing filtering mechanism in the housing market and its interaction with tax incentive policies，offering empirical evidence for better policy implementation. |
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