| 秦相慧,马野青,郭凇辰,耿媛媛.单边开放与跨境供应链构建——过境免签的政策效果[J].数量经济技术经济研究,2026,(4):78-104 |
| 单边开放与跨境供应链构建——过境免签的政策效果 |
| Unilateral Opening-up and Cross-border Supply Chain Construction:The Effect of Visa-free Transit Policy |
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| DOI： |
| 中文关键词: 单边开放 过境免签政策 跨境供应链 |
| 英文关键词: Unilateral Openness Visa-free Transit Policy Cross-border Supply Chains |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 在全球经贸不确定性上升、跨境供应链加速重构的背景下，国家（地区）间制度型开放对跨境供应链合作的影响日益受到关注。本文聚焦单边开放政策的经贸合作效应，利用中国 2013 年起分批实施的过境免签政策作为准自然实验，评估过境免签政策对跨境供应链合作的实际影响及其作用机制。研究结果表明，过境免签政策显著促进了免签城市与政策适用国家（地区）间的跨境供应链合作，该政策主要通过降低面对面交流成本、增进国家（地区）间信任以及改善中国境外形象，推动跨境供应链合作。此外，在发达国家（地区）、国内旅游资源更丰富的城市以及信息化发展水平更高的目标国（地区）中，该促进作用更为显著。本文还发现，公共外交政策的实施与过境免签政策形成了协同促进效应，免签停留时间的延长进一步增强了政策效果。本文研究为理解制度型开放背景下跨境供应链构建的理论逻辑提供了新的经验证据，也为进一步优化单边开放政策设计、深化高水平对外开放提供了政策启示。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| In an era of global value chain reconfiguration， unilateral opening-up policies are a strategic tool for nations to dismantle institutional barriers and reshape international supply chain cooperation. This study investigates the impact of China’s visa-free transit policy， a key unilateral measure， on the construction of cross-border supply chains. By treating the gradual implementation of this policy since 2013 as a quasi-natural experiment， we provide empirical evidence on its effectiveness and underlying mechanisms.This study is based on a city-country（region） level panel dataset of cross-border supply chain relationships between China and its partner countries （regions） from 2010 to 2019. We employ a staggered difference-in-differences （DID） method， comparing city-country （region） pairs subject to the policy （treatment group） with those not affected （control group）. The empirical results reveal that the policy significantly increases the number of newly established supply chain collaborations between visa-exempt Chinese cities and eligible foreign countries（regions）. This demonstrates the policy’s effectiveness in broadening the scope of China’s international supply chain cooperation. These conclusions remain robust even after rigorous checks， including addressing the validity of the DID model， handling zero-value issues in the dataset， and ruling out other potential confounding factors such as earlier unilateral visa policies or tourism events.The mechanism analysis reveals that the visa-free transit policy promotes cross-border supply chain cooperation through three key channels-reducing face-to-face communication costs， lowering trust costs between countries（regions）， and improving China’s international image. First， the policy substantially reduces the costs of face-to-face communication by facilitating short-term business travels and in-person interactions.Such interactions are essential for the exchange of tacit knowledge， the acquisition of “soft information”， and the coordination of complex production networks， all of which are critical for sustaining modern supply chains. Second， a notable finding is that the policy’s impact is even stronger for countries （regions） with strained political relations or significant institutional differences with China. This implies that unilateral opening-up can effectively bridge the trust gap between nations-an important finding that extends beyond traditional economic analysis. Finally， the study finds that the policy contributes to improving China’s international image. Its effect is more pronounced in countries （regions）with negative media and public perception toward China， indicating that people-to-people exchange can directly counter unfavorable narratives. We also identify a synergistic relationship between this unilateral policy and China’s public diplomacy initiatives， such as Confucius Institutes， which collectively promote supply chain cooperation. The study also demonstrates that extending the visa-free period further amplifies the policy’s positive effects， as seen with the shift from a 72-hour to a 144-hour， and now 240-hour， stay.There are several contributions of this study. First， it fills a gap in the literature by linking a non-traditional policy measure-the visa-free transit policy-with cross-border supply chain cooperation， offering a new perspective on the economic effects of unilateral opening-up. Second， it goes beyond traditional economic measures to explore how non-economic factors such as face-to-face interaction， trust， and national image influence supply chain collaboration. Third， by focusing on a city-country （region） level analysis，the study provides a more granular understanding of policy effects， which can offer more precise and targeted recommendations for optimizing China’s unilateral opening-up strategy and fostering more resilient global supply chains.Ultimately， our findings imply that in a world grappling with geopolitical tensions and fragmented supply chains， non-economic policies such as unilateral visa exemptions are not merely symbolic gestures but are powerful instruments that can directly foster economic ties and build trust. This study highlights the strategic importance of people-to-people exchanges as a core driver of modern economic cooperation， demonstrating how diplomatic and institutional innovations can unlock new avenues for international business and trade.This study provides new empirical evidence for understanding the theoretical logic of cross-border supply chain construction under institutional openness. It also offers crucial policy insights for further optimizing unilateral open policies and deepening high-level opening-up. |
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