| 张市化,随洪光,李希洁.南南合作：跨境交通基础设施、区域一体化与经济发展——中老铁路经济效应评估[J].数量经济技术经济研究,2026,(4):53-77 |
| 南南合作：跨境交通基础设施、区域一体化与经济发展——中老铁路经济效应评估 |
| South-South Cooperation: Cross-border Transportation Infrastructure,Regional Integration, and Economic Development: Assessment of the Economic Impact of the China-Laos Railway |
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| DOI： |
| 中文关键词: “一带一路” 夜间灯光 跨境交通基础设施 区域一体化 边界效应 |
| 英文关键词: Belt and Road Night Lights Cross-border Transportation Infrastructure Regional Integration Border Effect |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 跨境交通基础设施带来的经济一体化对激发欠发达国家的经济活力具有重要作用。本文基于夜间灯光数据，采用平方公里级别的栅格样本，考察了中老铁路对老挝经济的影响及其作用机制。结果表明，铁路开通使沿线地区灯光强度较对照组提高了 0.45%。作用机制检验显示，南南区域通联一方面激发了贸易活力，为发展中国家本土产品进入国际市场创造了便利条件，也为获取先进的制造业产品提供了重要渠道。另一方面沿线区域产生了显著的人口集聚效应，为信息传播、创新、分工深化等长远发展创造了条件。此外，铁路也增强了风险缓冲能力，增强了当地经济的韧性。与其他国际援助项目相比，中老铁路在促进区域经济发展方面展现出了独特优势。本文为“一带一路”倡议下的基础设施建设合作提供了重要的实证支持。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| Based on the VIIRS/DNB nighttime light data， this study empirically examines the impact of the China-laos Railway （CLR） on the economic development of Laos using the difference-in-differences method. The results reveal that the opening of the CLR has significantly promoted the economic development of the areas along the railway.This conclusion remains robust after a series of tests， including parallel trend tests，measurement error corrections， sample selection bias controls， and model specification error corrections. Specifically， the CLR not only directly boosts the economic development of the areas along the railway but also has a significant spatial spillover effect on neighboring regions. The boundary effect has significantly decreased by 80%. This finding indicates that as an important South-South infrastructure project under the “Belt and Road Initiative”， the CLR has significantly improved the regional economic pattern within Laos.The mechanism analysis further reveals multiple paths through which the CLR promotes economic development. First， the opening of the railway has significantly reduced cross-border trade costs and promoted the expansion of bilateral trade between China and Laos. This finding is consistent with the existing literature on the role of transportation infrastructure in reducing trade frictions and promoting trade growth. Second， the opening of the CLR has alleviated the negative impact of local floods on the local economy，indicating that railway infrastructure plays a crucial role in enhancing regional economic resilience. Finally， the opening of the railway has significantly promoted population agglomeration in areas along the railway， which is consistent with the theory in urban economics that transportation infrastructure promotes population agglomeration and economies of scale.Compared with other international aid projects， the CLR has a more significant promoting effect on the economic development of Laos. This finding not only highlights the unique advantages of infrastructure construction under the “Belt and Road Initiative” but also provides new empirical evidence for the effectiveness of international development aid.Overall， this study provides important empirical support for the regional economic effects of infrastructure construction under the “Belt and Road Initiative” and offers a new perspective on understanding the impact of cross-border infrastructure on the economies of developing countries.The contributions of this study lie in three aspects. First， it expands the impact of transportation infrastructure on economic development from an international connection perspective. The literature mainly focuses on the impact of transportation infrastructure within a country. Unlike the existing literature， this study focuses on the impact of cross-border transportation infrastructure on economic development through regional economic integration. It examines how the cross-border railway promotes economic ties between Laos and China by reducing trade frictions and pays particular attention to the spillover effects of cross-border infrastructure on regional economies， emphasizing the unique role of cross-border infrastructure in promoting regional economic integration， especially its driving effect on surrounding areas that have not directly opened railways. Through empirical tests，it reveals the specific economic mechanisms and impact paths. Secondly， this paper reveals the role of cross-border transport infrastructure in mitigating the effects of borders.Traditional literature mostly focuses on how transport infrastructure reduces trade costs，ignoring its heterogeneous effects on borders across different spatial scales. Our findings show that the China-Laos Railway significantly weakens the cross-border transport effect between China and Laos （by around 80%）， while strengthening economic boundaries within Laos. This demonstrates a unique pattern of ‘promotion in distant areas and competition in nearby areas’. Finally， this study also supplements the literature on non-industrial aid projects by comparing the CLR project with the ITA project. Through comparative analysis， this study verifies the significant positive impact of agricultural and industrial aid projects on economic growth by enhancing productivity and promoting industrial upgrading， while revealing that non-industrial aid projects， such as education，and environmental protection， may have an inhibitory effect on economic growth in the short term. This finding supplements the literature on the economic effects of aid projects，especially providing new empirical evidence for understanding the short-term economic impact of non-industrial aid projects. |
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