| 刘若鸿,黄玖立.产业政策与外资流入——来自“陆港通”北向资金的经验证据[J].数量经济技术经济研究,2026,(3):204-228 | | 产业政策与外资流入——来自“陆港通”北向资金的经验证据 | | Industrial Policies and Foreign Capital Inflows: Evidence from Northbound Funds under the Stock Connect Market | | | | DOI： | | 中文关键词: 产业政策 外资流入 北向资金 陆港通 | | 英文关键词: Industrial Policies Foreign Capital Inflows Northbound Funds Stock Connect | | 基金项目: | | | 中文摘要: | | 产业政策作为政府引导资源配置的重要工具，如何影响市场主体行为和资本流向备受关注。本文基于2017~2023年“陆港通”外资持股的季度面板数据，考察受到国家“五年规划”重点鼓励支持的行业是否能够吸引北向资金流入。研究显示，产业政策显著促进了外资流入规模，表明政府“有形”之手能够引导市场机制发挥作用，吸引北向资金流入中国证券市场。机制检验发现，产业政策主要通过传递积极市场信号、提升投资者情绪和增加股票流动性的影响渠道促进北向资金流入。异质性分析表明，产业政策显著影响东部、市场化程度较高和企业家精神较强地区的外资流入，并且政策效果在国有、资本密集度和融资约束较高、信息不对称程度较低的企业更加显著。本文为构建科学合理的产业政策体系提供参考，并对完善高水平对外开放体制机制、推动“有效市场”和“有为政府”更好地结合具有启示意义。 | | 英文摘要: | | Perfecting the socialist market economy with Chinese characteristics requires the joint effects of “active government” and “effective market.” The traditional economic theory holds that the government and the market are mutually substitutable and have clear boundaries. However, recent theoretical and empirical studies have demonstrated that there may be a complementary relationship between the government and the market. From the perspective of northbound funds inflows, this study re-examines this relationship, highlighting how industrial policies shape the behavioral responses of international investors. On the one hand, this study uses the key industrial policies of the central government as an important tool of “active government.” On the other hand, this study regards the investment decisions of foreign investors as a mechanism response of “effective market.” We explore the impact of industrial policies on northbound funds inflows using quarterly panel data on the Stock Connect market from 2017 to 2023. Industrial policies information is collected from the central Five-Year Plans, and northbound funds inflows are measured by foreign shareholdings through the Stock Connect. We construct a difference-in-differences model to examine the causal effect of industrial policies shocks on northbound funds inflows. Furthermore, we explore the mechanisms of policy shocks through signaling transmission, investor sentiment, and stock liquidity channels. In addition, this study examines the heterogeneity of industrial policies across regions, market environments, and firm characteristics.The main results are summarized as follows. On average, central industrial policies increase the market value and quantity of northbound foreign holdings by approximately 34% and 26%, respectively. Mechanism tests reveal that key industrial policies mainly attract northbound funds inflows through the channels of transmitting positive market signals, enhancing investor sentiment, and increasing stock liquidity. Heterogeneity analysis indicates that industrial policies significantly affect northbound funds inflows in the eastern provinces, as well as in high marketization and entrepreneurship regions. We also suggest that the effects of industrial policies are more pronounced among state-owned, more capital-intensive, high financing constraint, and low information asymmetry firms. This paper contributes to the current literature in three ways. Firstly, our study reveals the important guiding role of industrial policies in the socialist market economy with Chinese characteristics. Although existing studies find that industrial policies significantly affect the resource allocation, there is limited research further exploring how market mechanisms respond to industrial policies. Based on the perspective of northbound funds inflows, we provide solid evidence for the interactive relationship between the government and the market. Secondly, this paper furthers the understanding of the impact of industrial policies on the capital market. Existing studies mainly find that industrial policies have a significant impact on corporate behavior, factor allocation, and economic growth. Nevertheless, there is a lack of attention in the current literature regarding how industrial policies influence the stock market. We provide new evidence on the potential mechanisms of industrial policies on the northbound funds flows through the Stock Connect, which sheds new light on the role of industrial policies in cross-border capital markets. Thirdly, we add to the literature on the policy effects of stock market liberalization, and provide valuable insights for further advancing high-level opening-up. The Stock Connect serves as a critical channel for foreign capital inflows into China’s capital markets. Existing literature has largely evaluated the policy effects of stock market liberalization from the perspectives of corporate operating behavior and stock market performance. However, it remains unclear how policy factors influence northbound funds inflows. Unlike previous studies that primarily focus on the economic consequences of stock market liberalization, we add to the extant literature by showing that industrial policies are important policy factors influencing northbound funds inflows. This paper provides insights into building a high-level socialist market economic system, improving the high-level opening-up mechanism, as well as the scientific design of industrial policy system and further understanding of the relationship between government and market. | | 查看全文 相关附件： 下载数据代码附录 |
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