| 行伟波,田坤,黄坤,石光.政府规制政策何以促进新兴产业发展？——以新能源汽车为例[J].数量经济技术经济研究,2026,(2):154-179 | | 政府规制政策何以促进新兴产业发展？——以新能源汽车为例 | | How Can Government Regulatory Policies Promote the Development of Emerging Industries? Evidence from New Energy Vehicles | | | | DOI： | | 中文关键词: 新兴产业 新能源汽车 规制政策 合成差分法 | | 英文关键词: Emerging Industries New Energy Vehicle Regulation Policy Synthetic Difference-in-Differences | | 基金项目: | | | 中文摘要: | | 促进新兴产业发展和加快形成新质生产力，是推动中国高质量发展的关键之举。政府良好的规制政策设计可以优化市场监管规则，协调生产与消费平衡，拓展战略性新兴产业的成长空间。本文以新能源汽车产业为研究对象，利用2010~2021年中国乘用车上牌上险数据、新能源车企及上下游上市公司数据并采用合成差分法等系统评估城市限牌政策对新能源汽车渗透率的提升作用。在消费端方面，消费者选择模型显示限牌政策增加新能源汽车的被选概率，实证分析则发现限牌政策显著提升实施地的新能源汽车渗透率。各城市具体的限牌政策具有典型的时效性，其市场培育效果随时间推移逐渐减弱。限牌政策对新能源汽车渗透率的作用具有正向空间外溢性，周边城市和同省城市受政策消费示范影响显著。在生产端方面，厂商决策模型显示限牌政策扩大新能源汽车需求，激励厂商转入新能源赛道进而提升盈利能力。实证分析发现，限牌政策显著提升本地新能源车企及上下游公司的盈利能力，强劲推动新能源汽车产业的发展。本文为坚持有效市场和有为政府相结合来引导新兴产业发展提供实践证据，也为助力现代化产业体系建设和提升国家治理效能提供决策参考。 | | 英文摘要: | | Using new energy vehicles (NEVs) as a case study, this study focuses on the guiding role of regulatory policies in the development of emerging industries. Based on the implementation of the urban passenger car license plate regulation policy, this study comprehensively evaluates the above logical relationship at both the consumer and production levels. At the consumer level, this article incorporates consumer choice behavior into the theoretical framework of government regulatory policies to verify the theoretical mechanism of license plate restrictions on the NEV consumption market. The implementation of license plate restrictions changes consumers’ purchasing behavior choices, thereby increasing the probability of consumers choosing NEVs. Moreover, based on the newly added passenger car registration and insurance data at the prefecture-level cities in China from 2010 to 2021, the composite difference method was used to identify the actual impact of license plate regulation policies on the consumption structure of NEVs. It was found that the implementation of license plate policies increased the average penetration rate of NEVs in the city by 4.5%. After a series of robustness tests, the above conclusion still holds. The case study of four cities implementing license plate restrictions using the synthetic control method verified the volatility of the incentive effect of the above policies on the NEV market, and the spillover effect analysis proved that the policy has a significant demonstration effect on the consumption of NEVs in surrounding areas. At the production level, this study conducts theoretical modeling to maximize manufacturer profits and explores the mechanism of the impact of license plate regulation on the behavior of NEV manufacturers. The implementation of license plate regulation policies expands the demand market for new energy enterprises, and the profit-driven motivation incentivizes automobile manufacturers to shift to the new energy track. Further, based on data from Chinese NEV companies and their listed companies in the industry chain from 2010 to 2021, a progressive double difference model was chosen to verify the impact of license plate restrictions on the development of the local NEV industry. The policy significantly improved the profitability of local NEV companies and upstream and downstream companies, thereby actively promoting the healthy development of the local NEV industry chain.The main contributions of this study are as follows: First, it enriches the discussion on the role of regulatory policies in the development of emerging industries. Existing research mainly focuses on evaluating the effectiveness of license plate regulation in emissions reduction and congestion control, as well as exploring the practice of the NEV market architecture. However, this study is based on micro data of personal-level passenger car license plate and insurance registration and enterprise-level listed company data and expands the research boundary of promoting the development of emerging industries through regulatory policies through natural experiments based on license plate policies. Second, empirically, this study uses a new method of policy evaluation. On the consumer side, the composite difference method is used to overcome the research dilemma of few treatment groups and selection effect bias in the evaluation of restricted license plate regulation policies. On the production side, heterogeneity treatment effect correction and dual machine learning models are used to solve the potential estimation bias in progressive double difference identification, enriching the research methods of policy evaluation. Finally, this study provides important policy insights for the development of emerging industries such as new energy. The intensity of regulatory policy intervention has always been a concern for policymakers. Appropriate regulatory guidance can expand the survival space of emerging industries, while excessive directive intervention may inhibit their market-oriented development. This study provides practical evidence for future policy design and implementation by estimating the intensity coefficient of license plate regulation policies. Supplementing the development cycle of emerging industries with appropriate regulatory policies is a vivid example of developing a new quality productivity system tailored to local conditions. | | 查看全文 相关附件： 下载数据代码附录 |
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