| 蒋冠宏,范瑞.外部需求冲击与中国企业的第三地对外直接投资——基于反倾销调查的证据[J].数量经济技术经济研究,2026,(2):127-153 | | 外部需求冲击与中国企业的第三地对外直接投资——基于反倾销调查的证据 | | External Demand Shock and Chinese Enterprises’ Third Party OFDI: Evidence from Antidumping Investigations | | | | DOI： | | 中文关键词: 外需冲击 第三地对外直接投资 风险规避 多期DID | | 英文关键词: External Demand Shock Third Party OFDI Risk Avoidance Staggered DID | | 基金项目: | | | 中文摘要: | | 中国出口面临的外部需求冲击与日俱增，研究异质性企业如何应对这一外部风险对中国出口与对外投资的高质量发展至关重要。本文拓展现有理论模型，利用多期DID方法考察中国出口企业进行第三地对外直接投资的外需冲击规避动机。研究发现，来自目的地市场的负向需求冲击大幅度提高了中国企业在第三地开展生产型对外直接投资的概率。第三地投资策略确实在一定程度上帮助中国企业缓解了目的地市场的需求冲击。出口数量大、单价低的加工贸易型企业，相较于其他企业更为依赖目的地市场，有更大的激励从出口转换为在第三地进行生产型投资。企业进行第三地投资后，服务市场渠道增加、范围扩大，降低了对目的地市场的商贸服务型投资。本研究有助于引导中国企业应对外部需求冲击和提供解决方案，具有较大的现实意义和政策价值。 | | 英文摘要: | | In recent years, some countries have unleashed a wave of manufacturing reshoring and anti-globalization, significantly raising tariffs on Chinese products and imposing extensive antidumping duties to restrict imports from China through trade protectionist policies. In the context of China’s deep integration into economic globalization, demand shocks resulting from changes in the environments of major export markets such as Europe and the United States have severely impacted the production, operations, and development of Chinese enterprises. Therefore, how to mitigate the impact of external demand shocks on the resilience of China’s industrial and supply chains is a critical issue. This study aligns with the direction set by the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th CPC Central Committee on expanding high-level opening-up. From the perspective of promoting innovative development in trade and broadening spaces for foreign investment cooperation, it systematically explores how Chinese enterprises can mitigate external demand shocks through deeper globalization.Compared to the existing literature, the main contributions of this study lie in the following three aspects: First, the existing literature rarely examines the mitigating effect of third-party outward foreign direct investment (OFDI) on demand shocks in destination markets, and there is insufficient research on firms’ investment strategies after experiencing such shocks. With the current anti-globalization sentiment, this is a novel study to construct a theoretical model that incorporates third-party OFDI into firms’ decision-making framework for coping with external demand shocks, thereby filling the gap in existing theoretical models that have overlooked this specific decision-making scenario. Second, by integrating the characteristics and data features of Chinese firms’ investments, this study distinguishes between different investment types and analyzes the micro-level mechanism through which firms use third-party investments to circumvent trade barriers. This clarifies the intrinsic logic of “micro-level actors-investment motives-investment behavior”, thereby addressing the shortcomings of existing studies that “overlook type heterogeneity and offer vague mechanistic analyses”. Third, this study develops an empirical strategy to causally identify the relationship between the “trade barrier circumvention motive” and firms’ third-party OFDI. From a micro-level perspective, it provides an academic analysis of a new pathway for Chinese firms to mitigate destination market demand shocks—third—party OFDI. The study not only dissects the specific mechanisms through which Chinese firms respond to external demand shocks but also reveals the vulnerability and sensitivity of processing trade enterprises under such shocks, thereby offering actionable theoretical support for corporate decision-making and policy formulation.Combining a theoretical model with empirical analysis of 2000~2013 data, this study draws the following conclusions: First, negative shocks from destination markets significantly increase Chinese enterprises’ probability of establishing productive OFDI in third markets, indicating their motivation to circumvent demand shocks through third-market investment strategies. These findings remain robust after rigorous verification, reflecting Chinese enterprises’ flexible global adjustments to external risks amid de-globalization. Second, processing trade enterprises characterized by high export volumes and low unit prices demonstrate greater dependence on destination markets compared to other enterprises, indicating stronger incentives to transition from exports to third-party OFDI. Their reliance on low production costs (labor) and relatively backward production technologies makes them more sensitive to price changes and more inclined to invest in third parties with lower costs, revealing the dual characteristics of vulnerability and sensitivity in processing trade enterprises. Third, when incorporating third-party OFDI as a service strategy, enterprises expand their service pathways and market coverage (including third parties). Notably, after experiencing demand shocks in destination markets, enterprises increase productive investments in third parties while reducing commercial service investments in original destination markets. Thus, while antidumping measures protect destination markets’ commodity sectors, they also crowd out foreign direct investment, particularly commercial service investments. | | 查看全文 相关附件： 下载数据代码附录 |
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