| 侯新烁,刘鑫,余泳泽.社会信用体系建设与家庭消费升级——基于失信信息公开视角[J].数量经济技术经济研究,2025,(11):110-133 | | 社会信用体系建设与家庭消费升级——基于失信信息公开视角 | | Social Credit System Development and Household Consumption Upgrading: A Perspective from Credit Information Disclosure | | | | DOI： | | 中文关键词: 社会信用 社会信用体系建设 消费升级 消费环境 信贷约束 | | 英文关键词: Artificial Intelligence Stabilize the Chain Supply Chain Volatility Supply Chain Resilience | | 基金项目: | | | 中文摘要: | | 加速推动家庭消费提质升级是落实扩大内需战略的重要内容，也是做强国内大循环、推动经济行稳致远的战略之举。本文以失信（信用）信息公开制度为切入点，将家庭消费升级作为研究对象，基于失信被执行人（俗称“老赖”）数据和中国家庭追踪调查数据，实证检验了社会信用体系建设对家庭消费升级的影响。研究发现，以失信信息公开为主的社会信用体系建设显著促进了家庭消费提质升级。对作用机制的考察发现，社会信用体系建设对家庭消费升级的影响可以通过缓解居民信贷约束、改善消费环境两条渠道进行传导。进一步分析发现，社会信用体系建设的消费升级效应对于低收入、新婚家庭与核心家庭阶段、城镇户口以及低市场化水平地区的家庭更加明显。本文研究结论为继续推进社会信用体系建设、以信用手段促进居民消费提质升级提供了重要参考。 | | 英文摘要: | | Amid profound shifts in both domestic and international development environments, the rise of trade protectionism, unilateralism, and other anti-globalization forces has increasingly constrained China’s export-oriented growth model. Moreover, with the waning momentum of traditional investment under the “triple pressure” stage, expanding and upgrading household consumption is a critical strategic response to external shocks and a key driver of stable and high-quality economic development. As a vital foundation for consumption activity, a sound credit environment not only stimulates consumer demand and broadens the household consumption market but also plays a pivotal role in optimizing consumption structure and quality, thereby fostering a robust domestic demand system. However, the development of China’s social credit system has long lagged behind the pace of economic growth. Inadequate information-sharing mechanisms and underdeveloped disciplinary frameworks for dishonest behavior have led to the frequent occurrence of commercial fraud, counterfeit goods, and other breaches of trust. These issues not only undermine consumer rights and the consumption environment but also severely hinder the upgrading of household consumption. Therefore, this study theoretically and empirically examines the impact of social credit system development on household consumption upgrading and elucidates the underlying mechanisms. The findings offer valuable insights for strengthening the social credit system and leveraging credit-based instruments to promote high-quality and more efficient household consumption.This study draws on six waves of data from the China Family Panel Studies from 2010 to 2020 and leverages the 2015 launch of the National Credit Information Sharing Platform as a quasi-natural experiment. Using data on individuals listed as judgment defaulters, we construct a generalized difference-in-differences (DID) model to empirically identify the impact of social credit system development on household consumption upgrading and uncover its underlying mechanisms. The results reveal that the development of the social credit system, characterized primarily by the expansion of credit information sharing, significantly promotes the upgrading of household consumption. This core finding remains robust across a series of validity and sensitivity checks. Mechanism analysis reveals that the observed consumption upgrading effect operates through two main channels—the easing of household credit constraints and the improvement of the consumption environment. The credit constraint effect encompasses both formal and informal credit access, while the consumption environment effect manifests through improvements in commercial credit conditions, increased diversity of consumption supply, and enhanced product quality. Further heterogeneity analysis indicates that the upgrading effects of the social credit system are more pronounced among low-income households, families in the newly married or nuclear stages of the life cycle, urban hukou holders, and families residing in regions with lower levels of market development.This study offers important theoretical and policy insights for advancing China’s domestic demand expansion strategy and strengthening the domestic economic circulation. First, by deepening the theoretical understanding of social credit system development and extending the analytical lens to household consumption behavior, the study highlights the constructive role of credit system construction in supporting demand-side strategies. Second, this study systematically examines and empirically tests the impact of credit system development on household consumption upgrading, with particular attention to two key transmission channels—the alleviation of household credit constraints and the improvement of the consumption environment. This study contributes to the empirical literature on liquidity constraints in credit markets by offering new evidence from the perspective of social credit institutions. Third, leveraging the 2015 launch of the national credit information sharing platform as a quasi-natural experiment and incorporating data on judgment defaulters, this study employs a generalized DID approach to identify the causal impact of credit system development on household consumption upgrading with greater rigor. In summary, the findings underscore the policy relevance of promoting high-quality household consumption through credit-based instruments. Such efforts are crucial for cultivating a robust domestic demand system and ensuring the smooth functioning of the dual circulation development paradigm. | | 查看全文 相关附件： 下载数据代码附录 |
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