| 祁毓,尹傲雪,刘雪欣,刘潘.地方政府专项债对企业投资效率的影响研究[J].数量经济技术经济研究,2025,(11):66-89 | | 地方政府专项债对企业投资效率的影响研究 | | Impact of Local Government Special Bonds on Enterprise Investment Efficiency | | | | DOI： | | 中文关键词: 专项债 企业投资效率 基础设施 融资约束 信号预期 | | 英文关键词: Special Bonds Enterprise Investment Efficiency Infrastructure Financing Constraint Signal Expectation | | 基金项目: | | | 中文摘要: | | 专项债作为落实积极财政政策的重要抓手，通过重点项目建设成为撬动社会资本和优化投资结构的关键政策工具。本文基于地方政府专项债与A股主板上市企业投资效率的匹配数据，考察了专项债扩张对企业投资效率的影响，发现专项债通过完善区域基础设施供给体系来降低运营成本，释放银行信贷资源以缓解企业融资约束，以及降低企业不确定性感知来增强投资信心，从而对企业投资效率产生正向激励效果。异质性分析表明，该效应在财政自给度高、经济发展目标低的地区，以及媒体监督力度强、内部治理机制完善的企业更显著；同时，基建类、高收益、债券期限长的项目对企业投资效率的正向影响更明显。进一步分析发现，专项债的政策效果呈现边际效益随债务规模递减、以短期效应为主、受益范围本地化的典型特征，同时在一定程度上有助于提升企业全要素生产率。本文深化了对专项债微观经济效应的探讨，为优化企业投资效率和畅通投融资渠道提供了新的经验证据。 | | 英文摘要: | | The Third Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China emphasized establishing a market-driven endogenous investment growth mechanism, highlighting the crucial role of investment in economic growth and resource allocation. Due to evolving economic recovery and industrial upgrading, enterprise investment efficiency is a key indicator of firms’ resource allocation capabilities and overall economic system effectiveness. As an important policy instrument, local government special bonds have expanded significantly from RMB 0.97 trillion in 2015 to RMB 7.33 trillion in 2024. While existing research has largely focused on macroeconomic impacts, limited attention has been paid to the micro-level transmission mechanisms through which special bonds influence corporate investment decisions, especially the heterogeneous effects across different project types, forming the theoretical starting point of this study.Based on panel data matching local government special bond issuances with investment efficiency metrics of A-share main board listed companies from 2018 to 2023, this study examines the impact of special bond expansion on enterprise investment efficiency. The theoretical framework is grounded in the externality theory and fiscal decentralization theory, alongside a review of the evolution of special bond reforms and the current state of enterprise investment efficiency. The empirical analysis delves into the relationship between special bond expansion and enterprise investment efficiency, employing a series of robustness tests to validate the regression results. Furthermore, mechanism tests confirm that special bonds enhance external production conditions, ease financing constraints, and boost investor confidence. Regarding heterogeneity, this study innovatively constructs a project-level special bond database by combining Python-based data processing and manual compilation, covering 86,000 special bond projects. This database includes micro-level attributes such as fund allocation, return multiples, and maturity structures, enabling a deeper investigation into the heterogeneous effects of special bond projects on enterprise investment efficiency.The empirical findings align with the theoretical expectations. First, special bond expansion significantly enhances enterprise investment efficiency. A standard deviation increase in local government special bond liabilities reduces enterprise inefficient investment by 8.13% relative to the mean. Second, the mechanism analysis reveals that special bonds exert positive incentives on enterprise investment efficiency through multiple channels. The injection of special bond funds substantially improves regional infrastructure supply, providing firms with better external production conditions and lowering operational costs. Additionally, special bond arrangements help financing constraints, while reducing uncertainty enhances investment and development confidence. Third, the heterogeneity analysis reveals significant variations in policy effects based on project attributes, regional characteristics, and firm-specific factors. Speci?cally, infrastructure-type, high-yield, and long-term special bond projects are more effective in enhancing investment ef?ciency, especially in regions with high ?scal self-suf?ciency or low economic growth targets. Moreover, this effect is also more pronounced in ?rms subject to stronger media supervision and those with more robust internal governance mechanisms. Additional analysis reveals diminishing marginal returns, short-term dominance, regional limitations, and a positive impact on total factor productivity.We make the following policy recommendations: optimize fund allocation toward infrastructure-deficient regions, enhance public-private partnerships, extend bond maturities, and improve regional distribution to promote investment efficiency. | | 查看全文 相关附件： 下载数据代码附录 |
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