| 李增福,徐晓珠.地方政府债务治理如何重塑企业商业信用？[J].数量经济技术经济研究,2025,(11):47-65 | | 地方政府债务治理如何重塑企业商业信用？ | | How Does Local Government Debt Governance Reshape Corporate Business Credit? | | | | DOI： | | 中文关键词: 地方政府 债务治理 商业信用 银行信贷 盈利能力 | | 英文关键词: Local Government Debt Governance Business Credit Bank Credit Profitability | | 基金项目: | | | 中文摘要: | | 地方政府债务风险会通过微观传导危害供应链安全，如何有效防范化解债务风险和保障供应链安全问题备受关注。本文以 2015 年实施的新《预算法》作为外部政策冲击，构建强度双重差分模型，检验了地方政府债务治理对企业商业信用的影响及作用渠道。研究结果显示，地方政府债务治理显著减少企业对上游供应商的资金挤占，并增强其对下游客户的商业信用支持，表现为对商业信用需求的减少和对商业信用供给的增加。机制分析发现，地方政府债务治理通过缓解信贷约束和提升盈利能力，重塑企业的商业信用。上述效应对资产密集度高和所处地区财政压力高的企业更为显著，而市场地位低和研发密集度高的企业对商业信用需求的减少更为显著。进一步分析发现，地方政府债务治理通过重塑企业商业信用，能够提升供应链关系稳定度，促进企业自身的创新和投资水平，还有助于防范债务风险从债务高地向债务洼地蔓延。本文从供应链视角揭示了地方政府债务治理对企业商业信用的双向影响，为优化债务治理政策设计、促进供应链韧性提升提供了实践启示。 | | 英文摘要: | | The 2024 Central Economic Work Conference emphasized the need to “firmly hold the bottom line of no systemic risk.” In 2025, the “Government Work Report” pointed out that it is necessary to “digest the debts owed by local governments to enterprises.” In the same year, the State Council executive meeting deliberated and adopted the Action Plan for Accelerating the Afterburner to Clean up the Debts of Enterprises to ensure the effectiveness of debt clearing and resolutely curb new arrears. Currently, the implicit debt of local governments in China is huge and complex, which has a lot of negative effects on micro-enterprises. The financing of local government debt through local commercial banks not only has a crowding-out effect on the available credit capital space of enterprises but also reduces banks’ perception of the debt risk of local financing platforms, improves banks’ credit requirements for enterprises, increases the financing cost of enterprises, forces enterprises to seek commercial credit financing, and excessively crowds out upstream funds. However, the excessive dependence of enterprises on commercial credit financing may lead to arrears and endanger the security of supply chains. Therefore, it is crucial to explore how local government debt governance policies can achieve the dual goals of “preventing and resolving local government debt risks” and “improving the resilience and safety level of the supply chain.”This study takes the new Budget Law implemented in 2015 as an external policy shock, and based on the data of A-share listed companies in Shanghai and Shenzhen from 2007 to 2023, it constructs an intensity difference-in-differences model and tests the influence and channels of local government debt governance on corporate commercial credit. The results reveal that local government debt governance significantly reduce the capital crowding of enterprises to upstream suppliers and enhance their commercial credit support to downstream customers, which is manifested in the reduction of commercial credit demand and the increase of commercial credit supply. Mechanism analysis reveals that local government debt governance can reshape the business credit of enterprises by easing credit constraints and improving profitability. The above effects are more significant for enterprises with high asset density and high financial pressure in their regions, while the demand for commercial credit is more significant for enterprises with low market position and high R&D intensity. Further analysis reveals that local government debt governance can improve the stability of supply chain relations, promote the innovation and investment level of enterprises, and help prevent debt risks from spreading from debt highlands to debt depressions by reshaping corporate commercial credit.This study makes the following policy recommendations based on the conclusions. First, under the pattern of overall development and security, we should continue to promote local government debt governance, strengthen debt normalization supervision and early warning mechanisms, and accelerate the transformation and upgrading of financing platform companies. Second, the government should optimize the financing environment of enterprises, promote the accurate allocation of credit resources, promote the transparency of debt management, and improve the external business environment of enterprises. It should also strengthen the normal docking of government, banks, and enterprises; build the digital credit infrastructure of enterprises; and promote the accurate matching of financial resources and entity needs. It should encourage financial institutions to innovate the supply chain financial product portfolio, deepen the credit sharing of core enterprises, improve the regulatory framework for the use of debt funds, and establish a tracking mechanism covering the whole process. Third, the government should strengthen the supervision of enterprises’ arrears, establish and improve the credit evaluation system, and build a benign ecology of commercial credit. It should also set up a publicity column of arrears on the public credit platform, establish a reverse evaluation mechanism for suppliers, improve the joint punishment system for arrears, and establish an inter-departmental collaborative supervision mechanism.Unlike previous studies, the contribution of this study is mainly in the following three aspects: First, from the perspective of reshaping the business credit of enterprises, it expands research on the impact of local government debt governance on the microeconomic level. Compared with previous research, this study further investigates and finds that local debt governance is helpful for enterprises to provide more commercial credit. Second, from the demand and supply sides, it examines the different effects of local government debt governance on enterprise commercial credit, clarifies its mechanism, and expands research on the influencing factors of commercial credit. Unlike previous research, this study emphasizes that local government debt governance can promote the “virtuous circle” of commercial credit in the supply chain, that is, enterprises can “transfuse” the supply chain through commercial credit optimization behavior. This will prompt enterprises to shift from arbitrage to credit coordination, which will not only help improve the stability of the relationship between enterprises and suppliers and customers but also promote the healthy development of the supply chain. Third, the conclusion has clear policy implications and important practical significance. The results of this study are helpful to understand the influence of local government debt governance on micro-enterprise financing decision-making and provide practical enlightenment for optimizing debt governance policy design and promoting supply chain resilience. | | 查看全文 相关附件： 下载数据代码附录 |
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