| 俞峰,陈炳昊,张鹏杨,张梦婷.“一带一路”沿线国家市场准入与中国供应链转移[J].数量经济技术经济研究,2025,(6):47-67 | | “一带一路”沿线国家市场准入与中国供应链转移 | | Market Access in Belt and Road Initiative Countries and the Shift of China’s Supply Chains | | | | DOI： | | 中文关键词: “一带一路”倡议 供应链转移 中国供应链安全 交通基础设施 市场准入 | | 英文关键词: Belt and Road Initiative Supply Chain Shift China’s Supply Chain Security Transportation Infrastructure Market Access | | 基金项目: | | | 中文摘要: | | “一带一路”沿线日益完善的基础设施建设促进了各经济体的软硬联通,中国在“一带一路”倡议内逐渐构建起了较为复杂的海外供应链体系。本文利用2013~2018年“一带一路”沿线国家的交通基础设施建设项目数据与沿线国家在行业维度的投入产出数据,分析了“一带一路”交通基础设施建设下的市场准入改善对中国供应链转移的影响及作用机制。研究发现,“一带一路”沿线国家市场准入的改善显著促进了中国供应链向沿线国家的转移。机制分析发现“一带一路”沿线国家市场准入通过影响中国的对外投资尤其是非绿地投资和工业项目投资促进了中国供应链转移。异质性分析发现,沿海国家中低收入国家更有可能通过市场准入的改善成为中国供应链转移的承接国,低上游度产业、高交通依赖行业和劳动密集型产业是市场准入改善下中国供应链转移的主要产业。在转移的方向上,中国供应链倾向于向更具有比较优势的国家-行业转移。本研究为优化中国供应链的全球布局提供了参考,对促进中国与“一带一路”沿线国家供应链融合意义重大。 | | 英文摘要: | | Since the Belt and Road Initiative was introduced over a decade ago, the progressively enhanced infrastructure in economies along the Belt and Road has fostered both hard and soft connectivity among emerging and developing economies. This initiative has effectively improved market access in the region and exerted far‐reaching effects on investment, while China is gradually establishing a relatively sophisticated overseas supply chain system within the framework of the initiative. However, compared with China’s increasing focus on supply chain resilience and the rapid acceleration of its global supply chain layout, as well as the swift development of transportation infrastructure under the Belt and Road Initiative, there is a lack of in-depth quantitative and mechanistic analyses. Thus, the supporting and even guiding theoretical and empirical research has significantly lagged behind actual developments. Against the backdrop of enhanced connectivity through transportation infrastructure along the Belt and Road, this study constructs a theoretical framework and employs empirical analysis to examine how improvements in market access, induced by transportation infrastructure development, affect the shift of China’s supply chain, as well as the underlying mechanisms. This provides an effective approach for exploring ways to enhance the resilience of China’s supply chain and build a “China-led” global supply chain system.This study utilizes data on industry-level trade between China and Belt and Road countries from 2013 to 2018 and performs a multidimensional decomposition of bilateral exports to quantitatively capture indicators of China’s supply chain shift. In addition, using data on highway, railway, and port construction projects in Belt and Road countries, a core market access indicator is constructed. A fixed effects model is then employed to investigate the impact path and mechanism through which transportation infrastructure development under the Belt and Road Initiative influences the shift of China’s supply chain. The main research findings and contributions are as follows.(1) To accurately identify the two core indicators—transportation infrastructure development and China’s supply chain shift—this study first measures the level of supply chain transfer by using the Chinese value added embedded in a country’s exports and then conducts an in-depth analysis of the shift patterns of China’s supply chain across various countries and industries. Second, the study compiles a comprehensive dataset on transportation infrastructure in Belt and Road countries, constructs a market access indicator to improve the quality of transportation data, and visually demonstrates the enhancement in market access induced by transportation infrastructure development. Compared with existing research, these advances in measuring China’s supply chain shift and the market access indicator derived from Belt and Road transportation infrastructure help to fill existing gaps, making the conclusions more scientifically robust and reliable.(2) By focusing on causal identification, the study demonstrates that improvements in market access, induced by transportation infrastructure in Belt and Road countries, positively promote the shift of China’s supply chain. In addition to constructing a market access indicator that reflects transportation infrastructure, to mitigate endogeneity issues, the study employs exogenous historical indicators (ancient Silk Road routes) and topographical measures (Least Cost Path) as instrumental variables and further excludes target cities to reduce the confounding effects of endogeneity on causal inference. Moreover, through a series of robustness checks, including adjusting the parameters of the market access indicator, omitting certain Belt and Road participant countries that might affect identification, substituting different shift indicators, extending the sample period, and modifying clustering levels, the study rigorously evaluates the positive effect of market access in Belt and Road countries on China’s supply chain shift. This provides a replicable methodological framework for future research.(3) The study further proposes that the enhancement of market access resulting from improved transportation infrastructure along the Belt and Road encourages Chinese enterprises to increase their investments locally, which drives the shift effect of China’s supply chain. Empirical evidence reveals that the improvement in market access in Belt and Road countries facilitates the shift of China’s supply chain primarily by attracting Chinese outward investment, especially nongreenfield and industrial project investments. In addition, heterogeneous analysis reveals that coastal countries and lower-middle-income countries among Belt and Road participants are more likely to serve as recipients of China’s supply chain shift through transportation infrastructure development, whereas industries with low upstreamness, transportation-dependent industries, and labor-intensive and technology-intensive sectors are the primary channels through which China’s supply chain shift occurs. Regarding shift direction, China’s supply chain tends to shift toward country-industry pairs with higher comparative advantages. | | 查看全文 相关附件： 下载数据代码附录 |
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