| 王文举,钱新新.中国产业链韧性测度研究——基于外部冲击风险和效率驱动视角[J].数量经济技术经济研究,2025,(5):115-135 | | 中国产业链韧性测度研究——基于外部冲击风险和效率驱动视角 | | Research on the Measurement of Industrial Chain Resilience in China:Based on the Perspective of External Shock Risk and Effciency Drive | | | | DOI： | | 中文关键词: 产业链韧性指数 外部冲击风险 连贯数据包络分析 韧性损失评估模型 | | 英文关键词: Industrial Chain Resilience Index External Shock Risk Coherent Data Envelopment Analysis Resilience Loss Evaluation Model | | 基金项目: | | | 中文摘要: | | 增强产业链韧性是提升产业链现代化水平和促进经济高质量发展的题中之义，但在“链式”威胁的背景下，有效识别供需风险特征的产业链韧性测度指标相对缺乏。为此，本文将供给侧和需求侧的风险波动纳入产业链结构，利用连贯数据包络分析(CODEA)和韧性损失评估模型构建产业链供给侧和需求侧韧性指数，测度和分析2008年国际金融危机和2018年中美贸易摩擦两次外部冲击风险下中国整体和行业层面的产业链韧性。研究发现:在整体特征方面，中国供需产业链韧性呈先升后稳再降趋势，且在金融危机后产业链以高效率增长模式实现变革突破，在中美贸易摩擦后长期处于冲击抵御期并初步呈现缓慢恢复的状态。从驱动因素看，中国产业链韧性提升的主要动力来源于技术进步。在行业特征方面，不同行业之间的产业链韧性存在差异。在市场特征方面，国内市场的产业链韧性高于国际市场，但在供给侧，国内市场无法替代国际市场:在需求侧，可以从内需出发畅通国内大循环以对冲外需风险。本文研究对助力中国产业链稳定可控发展和韧性提升具有重要的启示意义。 | | 英文摘要: | | Currently, China stands at the historical intersection of a new round of scientific and technological revolution, industrial transformation, and the upgrading of the modernization level of its industrial chain supply chain. Frequent external shocks have seriously impacted the global industrial supply chain and accelerated its reconstruction. Against the background of the great changes of the past century, China has placed great strategic emphasis on the modernization and resilience of the industrial chain. Therefore, in the context of the modernization of China’s industrial chain, theoretical research on the resilience of industrial chains can be enriched by constructing an index for measuring the resilience of industrial chains, with the goal of ultimately enhancing both resistance and resilience, with efficiency as the driving force. Moreover, doing so can provide a theoretical basis and new materials for promoting the modernization of China’s industrial chain. However, studies to date have focused on the stability of industrial linkages in regard to promoting industrial chain resilience, but have failed to consider the overall operational efficiency of the industrial chain under the impact scenario. Based on this, this paper proposes a comprehensive index to comprehensively describe the performance of industrial chains, constructs a dynamic adjustment process for the industrial chain under the impact scenario using the resilience curve, summarizes and defines industrial chain resilience, and incorporates the operational efficiency of the industrial chain into a unified industrial chain correlation structure that takes into account the risk fluctuation of both the supply and demand sides. The resilience indexes of the supply and demand sides of the industrial chain are constructed using continuous data envelopment analysis (CoDEA) and the resilience loss evaluation model to measure industrial chain resilience. The results show that, in terms of overall characteristics, whether on the supply side or the demand side, the resilience of China’s industrial chain shows a trend of first rising, then stabilizing, and then declining. After the financial crisis, the industrial chain achieved a breakthrough in the mode of high-efficiency growth, and remained in a period of shock resistance long after the Sino-US trade friction, initially exhibiting a state of slow recovery. In terms of driving factors, technological progress has been the main driving force for improving the resilience of China’s industrial chain, and such technological progress has been greatly reduced by the impact of Sino-US trade friction. In terms of industry characteristics, there are differences in industrial chain resilience among different industries: the supply-side industrial chain of the manufacturing industry has the highest resilience, while the demand-side industrial chain of other industries has the highest resilience. In terms of market characteristics, the resilience of the industrial chain in the domestic market is higher than that in the international market. However, on the supply side, the domestic market cannot replace the international market, and locking in the supply source of scarce elements is the biggest potential risk for the supply side of China’s industrial chain. Meanwhile, on the demand side, we can start from domestic demand and smooth the domestic circulation to hedge the risk of external demand. | | 查看全文 相关附件： 下载数据代码附录 |
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