| 王愉靖,李平,方锦程,高昊宇.公共数据开放对非正规金融风险的治理效应——基于中国法律裁判文书的微观证据[J].数量经济技术经济研究,2025,(5):71-92 | | 公共数据开放对非正规金融风险的治理效应——基于中国法律裁判文书的微观证据 | | Governance Effect of Public Data Opening on Informal Financial Risk:Evidence from Judicial Documents in China | | | | DOI： | | 中文关键词: 公共数据开放 民间借贷风险 信息不对称 外部监督 | | 英文关键词: Public Data Opening Private Lending Risk Information Asymmetry External Supervision | | 基金项目: | | | 中文摘要: | | 本文以地级市公共数据开放平台网站上线为准自然实验，基于2014~2020年约470万份民间借贷裁判文书构建民间借贷非正规金融风险度量，研究区域内公共数据开放是否以及如何影响民间借贷风险。研究发现，公共数据开放显著降低了民间借贷风险。本文验证了公共数据开放的“信息赋能效应”和“社会监督效应”。进一步分析发现，公共服务类、社会民生类和经济类数据集的增加会显著降低民间借贷风险，且资源环境类数据对其影响不显著。本文的实证发现为定量评估公共数据开放对非正规金融市场风险的影响提供了经验证据，也从民间借贷市场的视角揭示了数据要素赋能区域金融风险管理方面的经济机制。 | | 英文摘要: | | A lack of due diligence and abundant access to information makes it difficult for the formal financial system to meet the financing needs of small economies, resulting in the widespread existence of private lending markets. However, due to the absence of supervision, private lending often suffers from problems of information asymmetry and opacity, making it difficult to accurately grasp the debtor’s credit status and to supervise the debtor’s timely repayment behavior. The bad debt rate of private lending has increased significantly. As private lending is an important part of the financial sector, there is a great need to explore the influencing factors of private lending risk. Doing so can also provide useful reference for improving various financial risk supervision systems.Social networks play an important role in private lending, particularly given that it is characterized by asymmetric information between lenders and borrowers, informal contract design, and low repayment constraints. However, the hidden costs of the social network, such as the inability to choose lending counterparties, obligatory help, and loan defaults, mean that private lending defaults are still widespread. As an important alternative source of information for both lenders and borrowers, public data can better provide the risk management process of private lending activities with stronger breadth and depth of coverage, timely information updating, and low-cost propagation, thus reducing the risk of private lending. Thus, this paper aims to determine whether and how public data opening affects private lending risks and the economic mechanism by which it does so.Studies to date have typically used survey data to analyze the characteristics of private lending, but they suffer from problems such as time discontinuity, contingent inference, and limited data coverage. Using data from Chinese legal judgment documents, this paper argues that the private lending disputes recorded in judgment documents constitute identification of the debtor’s failure to fulfill the contract despite his best efforts and the creditor’s failure to formally claim principal and interest, as well as the conviction that the debtor lacks either the ability or willingness to repay. Therefore, this paper calculates the number of private lending disputes in each city by year divided by the number of civil disputes in that city in that year. The proportion of private lending disputes thus calculated is used as a proxy for the risk of private lending. This index can better avoid the influence of seasonal effects and reduce the bias caused by other policy shocks during the sample period. Moreover, this index has good statistical characteristics such as wide coverage, continuous time, and reasonable distribution.This paper uses the launch of the public data opening platform websites of local governments as the proxy variable for public data opening. After collecting and sorting approximately 4.7 million private lending judgment documents from 2014 to 2020 from China Judgments Online, this paper identifies the relevant data and summarizes them at the prefecture level to obtain a description of the local private lending risks. The results show that: (1) Public data opening reduces the risk of local private lending by 8.5% relative to its mean value, and the parallel trend is established. (2) The results are still robust after the placebo test, the long difference test, exclusion of the influence of additional shocks and unobservable factors among cities, and replacement of dependent variables. (3) Public data opening mainly reduces private lending risks by integrating information resources to reduce information asymmetry between lenders and borrowers, and enhancing debtors’ repayment willingness by increasing external supervision. (4) Increases in public service, social livelihood, and economic data sets significantly reduce the private lending risk, while the impact of resource and environment data is not significant.The contributions of this paper are as follows. First, this paper reveals the economic impact of standardized public data opening on the construction of financial systems. Second, this paper improves the measurement method for private lending risk and uses more refined data. Third, this paper analyzes why public data opening affects private lending risk from a micro-mechanism perspective. | | 查看全文 相关附件： 下载数据代码附录 |
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