| 段梦.中国增值税税收归宿测算：基于多区域CGE模型的分析[J].数量经济技术经济研究,2026,(10):216-241 | | 中国增值税税收归宿测算：基于多区域CGE模型的分析 | | Measurement and Analysis of Tax Incidence of Value-added Tax in China: Based on a Multi-regional CGE Model | | | | DOI： | | 中文关键词: 增值税 税收转嫁 税收归宿 多区域CGE模型 | | 英文关键词: Value-added Tax Tax Shifting Tax Incidence Multi-regional CGE Model | | 基金项目: | | | 中文摘要: | | 增值税税收转嫁与归宿直接关系要素收入分配和区域经济协调发展，精准测算增值税税收归宿并厘清其跨行业、跨部门传导机制，对优化税制结构、完善收入分配制度与建设全国统一大市场具有重要理论与实践意义。本文基于一般均衡税收归宿理论，构建了契合中国经济区域异质性特征的多区域多部门税收归宿CGE模型，通过引入一次性总付税替代增值税，对增值税税收归宿进行了系统测算。研究结果显示，从全国整体看，劳动和资本的增值税税负分别为5.75%和10.25%，增值税税负在不同行业、不同区域间存在明显差异。稳健性分析表明，研究结论在放松要素跨区域和跨行业流动性假设后依然保持稳健。基于此，本文提出应以税收归宿为导向深化增值税制度改革，完善结构性减税政策，强化增值税与直接税协同调节功能。优化增值税区域分享机制，引入消费地因素促进税收利益合理分配。建立税收归宿评估体系，将要素、区域税负影响纳入税制改革决策，提升财税治理精准性，促进共同富裕与全国统一大市场建设。 | | 英文摘要: | | As a significant contributor to fiscal revenue in China, the tax burden of value-added tax (VAT) frequently experiences intricate shifts across industries, regions, and factors via the industrial chain and price mechanism, rendering it challenging to ascertain its true incidence through direct observation.Scientifically identifying the tax incidence of value-added tax, as the main tax category, is directly related to the distribution pattern of factor income and the coordinated development of regional economy.
Within the theoretical framework of tax incidence, this study constructs a multi-regional, multi-sector Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model tailored for China, incorporating 31 provinces, autonomous regions, and municipalities directly under the central government excluding Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan, along with 12 sectors. Utilizing the 2017 multi-regional input-output table sourced from the Carbon Emission Accounts and Datasets (CEADs), and integrating it with other national economic accounting data, we construct a multi-regional social accounting matrix to serve as the foundational dataset for the model. Following model calibration, this paper adopts GDP prices as the reference benchmark and implements the “differential tax incidence” approach to devise counterfactual simulation experiments. Through a comparative analysis of equilibrium price variations between counterfactual and baseline scenarios, we quantify the distribution of the value-added tax (VAT) burden across labor, capital, and consumers.
In comparison with the existing literature, the core innovations and marginal contributions of this study are primarily manifested in the following three dimensions. Firstly, concerning research methodology, this paper has constructed a multi-regional, multi-sector tax incidence Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model tailored to the heterogeneous characteristics of China’s economic regions. Secondly, with regard to analytical scope, this study has accomplished a comprehensive, panoramic calculation and systematic analysis, spanning from macro to micro levels and from regional to industries-specific perspectives. Thirdly, in terms of policy implications, the findings of this research exhibit a high degree of practical relevance, offering timely empirical evidence to underpin major national economic strategies and fiscal and tax reforms.
Research Findings: From the perspective of the overall changes in the Value-Added Tax (VAT) burden, at the national level, the labor tax burden stands at 5.75%, while the capital tax burden is 10.25%. On the whole, representative consumers do not shoulder the VAT burden. At the regional level, owing to the heterogeneity in economic development levels and industrial structures across different regions, notable disparities exist in the labor tax burden, capital tax burden, and VAT burden borne by representative consumers. Generally speaking, the capital tax burden surpasses the labor tax burden, and representative consumers in the majority of regions bear varying degrees of VAT burden. At the industry level, the labor tax burden, capital tax burden, and VAT burden borne by representative consumers in the construction sector are markedly higher than those in other industries. Moreover, representative consumers in the construction industry across all regions bear varying degrees of VAT burden. From the perspective of changes in the VAT burden within the manufacturing industry, at the national level, the labor tax burden is 1.78%, and the capital tax burden is 3.98%. At the regional level, most regions exhibit a positive labor tax burden, with only Gansu and Heilongjiang registering a negative labor tax burden. The capital tax burden remains positive across all regions. Representative consumers in most regions bear varying degrees of VAT burden in the manufacturing industry, whereas only a select few regions’ representative consumers receive varying degrees of VAT subsidies in this sector. At the industry level, the labor tax burden and capital tax burden in the manufacturing industry are significantly higher than those in other industries, and the VAT burden borne by representative consumers across diverse industries and regions demonstrates substantial heterogeneity. Robustness tests confirm the stability of the core conclusions.
Based on research findings, this paper proposes that we should deepen the reform of the value-added tax (VAT) system with a focus on tax incidence, improve structural tax reduction policies, and strengthen the collaborative regulatory function of VAT and direct taxes. We should optimize the regional sharing mechanism of VAT, introduce consumption-based factors to promote the reasonable distribution of tax benefits, establish a tax incidence evaluation system, incorporate the impact of factors and regional tax burdens into tax reform decisions, enhance the precision of fiscal and tax governance, and promote common prosperity and the construction of a unified national market. | | 查看全文 相关附件： 下载数据代码附录 |
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