| 王树森,赵增力.常住地基本公共服务与流动人口家庭消费[J].数量经济技术经济研究,2026,(10):56-88 | | 常住地基本公共服务与流动人口家庭消费 | | Basic Public Services in Places of Usual Residence and Migrant Household Consumption | | | | DOI： | | 中文关键词: 基本公共服务 居住证制度 消费支出 流动人口 | | 英文关键词: Basic Public Services Residence Permit System Consumer Expenditure Migrant Population | | 基金项目: | | | 中文摘要: | | 在由内需主导、消费拉动的经济发展模式加快形成的背景下，如何通过制度性公共服务安排释放流动人口的消费潜力，成为扩大内需面临的重要现实问题。以居住证为主要载体的常住地提供基本公共服务制度，为改善不能落户或不愿落户流动人口的公共服务可及性提供了制度路径。本文构建理论模型，探讨了居住证制度对流动人口家庭消费规模与消费结构的影响，并以《居住证暂行条例》的实施作为准自然实验，结合中国家庭追踪调查数据，实证检验居住证制度的促消费效应。研究发现，居住证制度显著提升了流动人口家庭的消费水平，人均消费支出增加了8%。机制分析表明，该制度主要通过收入效应、保障效应和定居预期效应影响流动人口的消费决策。异质性分析与延伸讨论发现，上述效应在落户供需错配程度较高地区及不同代际流动人口群体中存在差异，且在人口净流入地区面临地方政府支出激励约束。本文为理解常住地提供基本公共服务制度的促消费效应提供了经验证据，并对完善居住证及相关制度安排具有启示意义。 | | 英文摘要: | | China’s internal migrant population has reached 376 million, about a quarter of the national total, yet migrant households consume persistently less than comparable urban residents. Because basic public services have long been allocated on the basis of local household registration (hukou), migrants without one face restricted access to employment protection, social insurance, public health services and schooling, and therefore tilt expenditure toward precautionary saving. The Outline of the 15th Five-Year Plan and the action plan for people-centred new urbanization now require basic public services to be supplied at the place of permanent residence and to cover the entire resident population. The Interim Regulations on Residence Permits, in force since January 2016, created a unified national entry point into local service systems. Whether such an arrangement, which improves accessibility without requiring hukou transfer, can release their consumption potential nevertheless remains an open question.
This paper first develops a state-dependent two-period household model in which the residence permit raises income in the destination city, lowers the probability of a high-expenditure state by improving insurance participation and service accessibility, and raises the probability of staying, which alters the expected return on location-attached durables and their disposal cost. These correspond to an income effect, a security effect and a settlement expectation effect, the last tilting expenditure toward durables. Using the implementation of the Regulations as a quasi-natural experiment and drawing on six waves of the China Family Panel Studies from 2012 to 2022, this paper estimates a DDD model exploiting variation in implementation timing across provinces, over time, and between migrant and locally registered households, with household, year and province-by-year fixed effects and standard errors clustered at the household level. Per capita consumption expenditure of migrant households rises by about 8% relative to households with local hukou, roughly RMB 1,961 per person, or some RMB 737.3 billion nationwide. The estimate survives a permutation test, Oster bounds, year-by-year propensity score matching, the exclusion of early-implementing provinces and of highly educated households, a test of the stable unit treatment value assumption, and controls for eligibility characteristics. Mechanism tests support all three channels. Employment quality, labour contract coverage and per capita total and wage income all rise, while business and transfer income do not respond. The interactions with income volatility risk, expected health deterioration and educational expenditure pressure are significantly positive, indicating a weakened precautionary motive. The likelihood of continuous residence increases, and the durable share of expenditure rises at the 10% level while the other three shares remain unchanged. The effects are concentrated in provinces with a severe mismatch between settlement demand and settlement policy, and among younger-generation households. A city-level analysis shows that in net inflow areas general budgetary expenditure grows faster than revenue, whereas the reverse holds elsewhere.
The contributions of this study are threefold. First, it detaches the accessibility of basic public services from hukou status and evaluates an arrangement that does not presuppose settlement, within a unified framework that decomposes the consumption effect into income, security and settlement expectation channels. Existing work concentrates on hukou reform and on granting rights through settlement, so evidence on the residence permit system as an instrument in its own right remains thin. Second, this paper separates the residence permit from the temporary residence permit that preceded it. Prior studies commonly merge the two and define treatment by whether an individual holds a certificate, so the estimated effect cannot be attributed cleanly to a system whose purpose is service provision rather than population control. The analysis is also extended from effect identification to the conditions and fiscal sustainability of implementation. Third, treatment is defined at the level of policy implementation rather than individual take-up. Eligibility thresholds select migrants who already differ in settlement intention, job stability, income and housing, so cross-sectional comparisons of holders and non-holders cannot separate the policy effect from the characteristics of the selected group.
The policy implications of this study are as follows. First, local eligibility rules and service standards should be brought into substantive alignment with central legislation, and conditions imposed beyond those set out in the Regulations should be cleared away, so that rising thresholds do not turn the residence permit into a second hukou; a catalogue of foundational public services should also be established and adjusted dynamically. Second, the function of the residence permit should be clarified and coordinated with the deepening of hukou reform, so that it provides a graduated rights system where settlement remains difficult. Third, policy should be differentiated according to intergenerational divergence within the migrant population, concentrating on the window opened by younger-generation migrants. Fourth, a dynamic funding mechanism under which money follows people should be explored, strengthening fiscal capacity in net inflow areas so that local and central incentives are aligned. | | 查看全文 相关附件： 下载数据代码附录 |
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