| 李建军,蒲泓锦,吴周易.个人所得税减免的稳就业效应[J].数量经济技术经济研究,2025,(10):112-132 | | 个人所得税减免的稳就业效应 | | The Employment Effect of Personal Income Tax Reduction | | | | DOI： | | 中文关键词: 个人所得税 减税 就业 薪酬策略 | | 英文关键词: Personal Income Tax Tax Reduction Employment Compensation Strategy | | 基金项目: | | | 中文摘要: | | 就业是最大的民生，激发市场劳动需求以扩大就业是维护经济社会稳定发展的关键之举。本文使用上市公司数据和强度双重差分方法，探讨了2018年个人所得税改革对就业的影响。研究发现，个人所得税减免有效促进了企业员工规模的扩大，带来了显著的“稳就业”效应，且该效应在融资约束较强、员工议价能力较弱以及处于成长期和成熟期的企业中更加明显。机制检验表明，个人所得税减免增加了员工税后收入，会间接降低企业雇佣员工的税前工资成本、增强企业吸纳就业的支付能力，从而产生扩大就业的作用。进一步分析发现，企业主要增加了高学历和高技能水平员工的数量，优化了企业人力资本结构，并显著减少了企业内部收入不平等状况。本文有助于理解个人所得税政策的企业行为反应，为全面评估个人所得税政策对劳动市场的综合影响、进一步完善税制设计提供了有益参考。 | | 英文摘要: | | Under the dual pressures of weak domestic demand and increasing external uncertainties, stabilizing employment is important for maintaining the smooth operation of the economy and society. The formulation and implementation of scientific tax policies can directly affect business operating costs and the supply-demand relationship in the labor market, thereby promoting economic growth and improving the quality and expanding the scale of employment. Personal income tax (PIT) reduction policies are directly related to the after-tax actual income of workers and closely linked to the labor employment costs of enterprises. They may jointly exert a significant impact on the labor market from two perspectives—labor supply and enterprise employment decisions.The Chinese government implemented a large-scale PIT reduction policy in 2018. The policy aims to reduce the tax burden on taxpayers by raising the tax-free threshold, increasing special additional deductions, and adjusting the tax rate structure. This policy directly increases employees’ actual after-tax income. However, it also means that employers only need to pay pre-tax wages at a lower level than before the policy or maintain a lower wage growth rate to ensure that employees receive the same or proportionally equivalent post-tax income levels and wage growth as before the policy. Therefore, the PIT reduction policy effectively and indirectly reduces the marginal cost of labor employment and, to some extent, alleviates employers’ wage increase pressure. This ultimately influences employers’ hiring decisions.This study uses listed company data and the difference-in-differences method to examine the impact of the 2018 PIT reform on employment. The results reveal that the PIT cut effectively increased the labor employment growth rate of enterprises, leading to a significant “employment stabilization” effect. This conclusion remains valid after multiple robustness tests, such as parallel trend tests, placebo tests, replacement of explanatory variables, replacement of core explanatory variables, and exclusion of contemporaneous policies. This effect was more pronounced in enterprises that faced stronger financing constraints and weaker employee bargaining power and were in the growth or mature stages before the reform. Mechanism tests indicate that benefiting from the policy effect of increasing employees’ post-tax income through the PIT cut, enterprises adopted measures such as reducing employees’ pre-tax wage levels and wage growth rates to share part of the tax cut benefits. Ultimately, the reduction in the marginal cost of labor employment and the increase in cash flow prompted enterprises to further expand their labor employment scale. Further analysis revealed that enterprises primarily increased the number of employees with higher education and skills, optimizing their human capital structure. The reform reduced the average wage levels of managerial staff, significantly narrowing income inequality within enterprises.The contributions and innovations of this study are as follows: First, it not only enriches research on the relationship between tax incentives and employment but also supplements the literature on the relationship between PIT and corporate behavior. Second, from the perspective of corporate behavior, it provides new empirical evidence for further understanding how PIT reduction policies affect the labor market. Third, it has policy implications for effectively increasing workers’ income and better leveraging the income distribution effects of PIT reduction policies. When designing PIT policies, it is essential to consider corporate behavior to prevent corporations from overly benefiting from tax cuts, which can divert the policy from its original aim of increasing workers’ incomes. This article proposes the following three recommendations: First, reasonably reduce the PIT burden, and lower the labor costs of enterprises. Second, enhance the accuracy of tax reductions to encourage enterprises to hire more employees. Third, facilitate diversified financing channels for enterprises to effectively reduce their financing costs. | | 查看全文 相关附件： 下载数据代码附录 |
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