| 刘洋,韩永辉,王贤彬.工业智能化能兼顾促增长和保民生吗？[J].数量经济技术经济研究,2023,(6):69-90 | | 工业智能化能兼顾促增长和保民生吗？ | | Can Industrial Intelligentization Balance the Promoting Growth and Ensuring Living Needs? | | | | DOI： | | 中文关键词: 工业智能化 促增长 保民生 创新研发 智能化资本 | | 英文关键词: Industrial Intelligence Promoting Growth Ensuring Living Needs Innovative Research and Development Intelligent Capital | | 基金项目:本文获得国家社会科学基金重大项目（21&ZD074）、国家自然科学基金资助项目（71873041、72073037）、广东省自然科学基金项目（2022B1515020008）、广东外语外贸大学全球治理与人类命运共同体重点实验室和广东省哲学社会科学创新工程2022年度特别委托项目（GD22TWCXGC12）的资助。 | | | 中文摘要: | | 当前，中国稳就业及保民生压力巨大，工业智能化转型升级能否促使中国兼顾“促增长”与“保民生”的发展目标，对推动经济实现平稳增长与共同富裕至关重要，据此有必要准确认识工业智能化对宏观经济可能带来的创造性与破坏性双重影响。本文在界定工业智能化本质的基础上构建包含异质性劳动力、异质性资本、技术研发与转化等特征的新凯恩斯动态随机一般均衡模型，模拟工业智能化投资专有技术冲击对中国宏观经济的影响机制。研发结果表明，工业智能化通过提高要素生产率、促进产品研发与创新等方式促进经济总产出，但同时也降低了对传统生产资本和非研发型劳动力的需求，引发收入差距扩大、劳动收入份额下降等民生问题，影响经济总需求。进一步研究发现，适度工业智能化更有利于中国兼顾实现“促增长”和“保民生”。反事实分析表明，充分重视创新研发战略及研发型人才的培养，可有效调节工业智能化的破坏性效应，促使经济体更好地实现可持续与高质量发展。 | | 英文摘要: | | Driven by digital technology, the global economy has set off on an intelligent technology revolution. Due to its significant technological spillover effect, industrial intelligence has become an important way to achieve high economic development in various countries or regions.Although the development of the economy has a strong demand for industrial intelligence, industrial intelligence requires the introduction of new intelligent capital to replace traditional production capital and non-research and development (R&D) labor force in production. If the labor force continues to be replaced by intelligence, the economy may face the problem of damage to people's livelihood, such as structural unemployment, stagnation of wage growth, and a decrease in labor income share. At present, the pressure to promote economic growth and ensure living needs is very serious in China. To determine whether industrial intelligence can help China achieve the development goal of “promoting growth” and ensuring living needs, it is necessary to accurately recognize the creative and destructive impact of industrial intelligence on macroeconomic operations. By defining the essence of industrial intelligence, this article builds a new Kanes dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model that contains heterogeneous labor, heterogeneous capital, and technology R&D and transformation and estimates industrial intelligent investment technical shock to the macroeconomic economy in China. The results reveal that, first, industrial intelligence has improved economic output by increasing capital and labor productivity and continuing to promote technology innovation. China should fully attach importance to the application of industrial intelligent production technology and help the economy achieve rapid and steady growth. Second, industrial intelligence would substitute traditional production technology, causing the economy to face problems such as a decline in traditional capital investment, unemployment of non-R&D labor force, an increase in the income gap, and a reduction in labor income. In particular, it should be noted that when industrial intelligence is excessively used, the share of element remuneration will gradually shift to capital, exacerbating the inequality between capital returns and labor compensation, which is not conducive to the realization of the economic growth goal of “driving domestic demand.” Third, the advancement of industrial intelligence should focus on a moderate scale and be aware of the risk of blind intelligence. Although industrial intelligence is good for manufacturing power, if the use rate of economic intelligent technology is too low, the irritating effect of industrial intelligence on economic production and investment would not be fully realized. While the use rate of economic intelligent technology is too high, industrial intelligence will have a more destructive impact on overall investment demand, consumer demand, salary level, and labor employment. Only by promoting industrial intelligence in accordance with regional factor endowment structures can we fully use industrial intelligence to promote the economic output and wage level of labor. A balance between “promoting growth and ensuring living needs” will be realized. Finally, the implementation of innovative R&D strategies and the cultivation of R&D-oriented talents are essential because they not only make economies achieve sustainable and high-quality economic development but also can effectively regulate the disruptive effects of industrial intelligence. Therefore, when analyzing the impact of industrial intelligence on the macro economy, we should fully attach great importance to the regulatory role of product R&D. Based on the conclusion of this article, three recommendations are made. First, we should strengthen industrial intelligence while paying attention to its moderate scale. Second, we should pay attention to prevent the problem of unemployment and income distribution caused by industrial intelligence and try to minimize unnecessary livelihood welfare losses. In the context of the continuous deepening of intelligence software represented by ChatGPT, the replacement of artificial intelligence in employment is irreversible, requiring the government to play the functions of public services and implement related social security services. Finally, we should pay attention to innovation-driven strategies and cultivate innovative talent. The government needs to increase educational expenditures, especially investing in skills that are difficult to replace by artificial intelligence, accelerate the accumulation of human capital, and promote the transformation of the economy to innovation-driven and domestic demand-driven. | | 查看全文 相关附件： 下载数据代码附录 |
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