| 秦若冰,马弘.RCEP的贸易和福利效应：基于结构模型的量化分析[J].数量经济技术经济研究,2022,(9):26-49 | | RCEP的贸易和福利效应：基于结构模型的量化分析 | | The Trade and Welfare Effects of RCEP: A Structural Quantitative Assessment | | | | DOI： | | 中文关键词: RCEP 贸易效应 福利效应 结构模型 | | 英文关键词: RCEP Trade Effects Welfare Effects Structural Model | | 基金项目:本文获得对外经济贸易大学中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金（批准号21QD26）和清华大学中国经济研究中心专项基金的资助 | | | 中文摘要: | | 本文将结构模型应用于RCEP影响研究，在综合考虑全球投入产出关联、企业不完全竞争、重点技术产业规模经济特征的基础上，对RCEP的贸易和福利效应及其影响机制进行深入研究。研究发现：首先，RCEP将显著降低区域内贸易成本和商品价格，促进区域内贸易增长，RCEP生效后域内贸易额将在2019年的基础上增加约4.78%；其次，RCEP将推动中日韩三国在电子信息等领域的供应链分工合作, 推动亚太供应链深度融合，提升区域内国家在全球贸易中的地位；在贸易转移效应下，欧盟和美国的双边贸易有所下降；最后，RCEP将提升区域内主要成员国的福利水平，上述福利水平的改善主要来自贸易成本下降所带来的区域内产业合作，以及由此推动的各国出口优势部门的规模扩张和利润提升。在此基础上，本文进一步对RCEP框架下我国重点技术产业竞争力提升的可能路径及影响进行了拓展性分析，为我国更好把握RCEP发展机遇提供政策参考。 | | 英文摘要: | | This paper constructs a structural model that features global input-output linkages, imperfect competition, and scale economy to quantify the trade and welfare effects of Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP). Firstly, this paper builds on the seminal work of Ossa (2014) to develop a general equilibrium model where markets are imperfect competition, introducing the input-output linkages in the same way as in Caliendo and Parro (2015), and considers the sectoral external economies of scale to capture the salient feature of high-tech industries following Ju et al. (2019). Secondly, we express the model in relative changes and decompose the welfare effects from tariff changes into terms of trade, profit shifting, volume of trade and scale effects. Finally, we take the model to data and use the framework to evaluate the trade and welfare effects of RCEP in aggregate and at the sectoral level.This paper finds that firstly, RCEP tariff reduction would substantially reduce the intra-bloc trade costs and commodity prices, leading to the growth of intra-regional trade. According to our estimates, RCEP would augment aggregate intra-regional trade by about 4.78% on the basis of 2019. We show that the growth of intra-regional trade mainly arises from the closer integration among China, Japan, and Korea, promoting the in-depth integration of the Asia-Pacific supply chain. Secondly, we find that trade between the RCEP and the US, as well as the EU, would also increase under the policy. While the bilateral trade between the U.S. and the EU would decrease due to the trade diversion effects. Moreover, RCEP would increase the welfare of most RCEP member countries. The welfare gains for China, Japan, and Korea are 0.21%, 1.62% and 1.20%, respectively. This positive welfare effect mainly arises from the profit increases and scale expansions in their export-oriented sectors. And the welfare level of the U.S. and the EU would decrease slightly by 0.04%. Finally, we show that welfare effects from RCEP tariff reductions are reduced for China when the external economies of scale in high-tech industries do not take into account. In addition, we find that non-discriminatory subsidies for Chinas high-tech industries under RCEP would not only increase the welfare gains of China, but also increase the welfare gains of upstream countries including Japan and Korea. The conclusions above verify the positive impacts of RCEP in augmenting intra-bloc trade cooperation and promoting the integration of supply chains in the Asia-Pacific region. Our findings indicate the potential welfare gains from in-depth trade cooperation among China, Korea and Japan, providing empirical support for speeding up the negotiations on the Trilateral Free Trade Agreement. Compared with existing literature, the marginal contribution of this paper are as follows. Firstly, this paper extends the framework developed by Ossa (2014) and constructs a structural model to evaluate the trade and welfare effects of RCEP. Compared with the reduced-form estimation method, the structural model provides a closer link between the theory and data, and allows us to evaluate the trade policies that have not come into effect. Compared with other quantitative work, like many CGE models, our framework is still small enough to clarify the important mechanisms behind the quantitative results. Secondly, the structural model we construct in this paper relaxes the perfect competition market assumption made in most existing quantitative models featuring global input-output linkages, and considers the sectoral external economies of scale. By decomposing the welfare effects of tariff reductions, we show how profit-shifting effects and scale economy amplify the welfare gains of regional trade agreements. Finally, by providing quantitative evidence and clarifying the driving mechanisms, our analysis helps to understand the significance of the RCEP entering into force, and provides valuable implications for China to better grasp the development opportunities under RCEP | | 查看全文 相关附件： 下载数据代码附录.zip |
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