| 黄仁全,李村璞.中国经济国内国际双循环的测度及增长动力研究[J].数量经济技术经济研究,2022,(8):80-99 | | 中国经济国内国际双循环的测度及增长动力研究 | | Measurement and Growth Dynamics of the Domestic and International Dual Circulation of China's Economy | | | | DOI： | | 中文关键词: 国内国际双循环 新发展格局 世界投入产出表 经济增长 | | 英文关键词: Domestic and International Dual Circulation New Development Pattern World Input-Output Table Economic Growth | | 基金项目:本文获得教育部人文社会科学研究项目“双循环格局下农业供应链金融数字化对农户融资的影响机制与政策优化研究”（21YJC790089）和国家自然科学基金青年项目“关于自动机表示理论的研究”（61402364）的资助。 | | | 中文摘要: | | 研究目标：为揭示我国经济国内国际双循环发展机理，围绕构建什么样的新发展格局怎么构建新发展格局等问题开展研究。研究方法：基于世界投入产出模型，通过对比分析中国与全球主要经济体，在国内国际双循环发展水平和经济增长动力的异同。研究发现：我国经济国内依存度呈现“U”形结构特征，均值为80.71%，远低于美国、日本等发达经济体，第三产业在GDP占比较低是主要原因。中国经济虽已融入全球价值链，但对其他国家的拉动作用不明显，未来与欧盟、东盟和金砖国家的贸易潜力巨大。中国的增加值率，效应为正，中间品消耗呈上升趋势；逆全球化思潮蔓延和贸易保护主义兴起，导致各国反馈效应为负。消费、投资和出口仍是拉动我国经济增长的“三驾马车”，对投资的依赖相对较高，消费拉动作用有待提升。研究创新：基于OECD编制的2021版世界投入产出表，全面测度与分析了国内国际双循环的依存度、关联度和感应度测度，并从增加值率变化效应、结构变化效应（国内乘数效应、反馈效应和溢出效应）、最终品产出变化效应（消费效应和投资效应）探索了经济增长的动力。研究价值：有利于从定量角度深入理解国内国际双循环的特点和规律，对构建国内国际双循环新发展格局具有重要的借鉴价值。 | | 英文摘要: | | Research Objectives: This study investigates the new development pattern of the domestic and international dual circulation development mechanism of China's economy. Research Methods: Based on the world input-output model, a comparative analysis is conducted between China and major global economies in terms of domestic and international dual circulation development level and economic growth. Research Findings: The research finds that the domestic dependence of China's economy is U-shaped with an average of 80.71%, much lower than that of the United States, Japan and other developed economies. The main cause is the low proportion of the tertiary industry in GDP. Although China's economy has been largely integrated into the global value chain, its driving effect on other countries is not obvious. It is also found that China's future trade potential with the EU, ASEAN and BRICS countries is huge. China's value-added rate effect is positive, and the consumption of intermediate goods shows an upward trend. The spread of the anti-globalization movement and the rise of trade protectionism have led to negative feedback effects in various countries. Consumption, investment and export are still the “three carriages” driving China's economic growth, with relatively high dependence on investment, and the driving role of consumption needs to be improved. Research Innovations: Based on the OECD's 2021 edition ICIO tables, this study comprehensively measures and analyzes the dependence, relevance and sensitivity of China's domestic and international dual circulation, and explores the driving forces of economic growth from the change effect of value-added rate, structural (domestic multiplier effect, feedback effect and spillover effect), and final product output (consumption effect and investment effect). Research Value: This research sheds light on the characteristics and patterns of China's domestic and international dual circulation from a quantitative perspective, which facilitate domestic and international policymaking and decision making of economic activities. | | 查看全文 |
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