| 张卓群,张涛,冯冬发.中国碳排放强度的区域差异、动态演进及收敛性研究[J].数量经济技术经济研究,2022,(4):67-87 | | 中国碳排放强度的区域差异、动态演进及收敛性研究 | | Study on Regional Differences, Dynamic Evolution and Convergence of Carbon Emission Intensity in China | | | | DOI： | | 中文关键词: 碳排放强度 区域差异 动态演进 空间收敛 | | 英文关键词: Carbon Emission Intensity Regional Differences Dynamic Evolution Spatial Convergence | | 基金项目:本文获得国家社会科学基金后期资助项目“半参数Copula模型及其在经济领域非线性相关问题中的研究”（21FJYB026）、中国社会科学院重大研究项目“新发展理念下‘双碳’目标与中国绿色转型研究”（2022YZD017）、国家社会科学基金重点项目“基于人与自然耦合系统的黄河流域城市群高质量发展研究”（21AZD043）和中国社会科学院创新工程项目“生态文明新范式下国土空间治理研究”（2021STSB02）的资助。 | | | 中文摘要: | | 研究目标：研究中国283个城市及各重大战略区域碳排放强度的区域差异、动态演进和空间收敛性。研究方法：基于中国碳核算数据库发布的碳排放数据计算得出全国283个地级以上城市的碳排放强度，作为论文的主要研究对象，采用Dagum基尼系数及其分解法测算重大战略区域碳排放强度的差异情况，使用非参数核密度估计方法刻画不同区域碳排放强度的动态演进特征，运用变异系数和空间面板模型开展σ收敛和β收敛分析。研究发现：全国城市及各重大战略区域碳排放强度出现显著下降，整体上表现出明显的“南低北高”空间格局，且各重大战略区域间的组间差异具有扩大趋势；各区域碳排放强度的动态演进特征差异较大，京津冀、黄河流域内部城市极化较为明显；全国城市及各重大战略区域碳排放强度均不存在σ收敛，但均存在绝对β收敛和条件β收敛，不同区域表现出来不同的空间效应，且经济水平、产业结构、人口密度、外资强度、科研投入、路网密度对碳排放强度变化率的影响具有显著的异质性。研究创新：使用夜间灯光数据反演核算二氧化碳排放量克服了传统能源统计数据开展核算的一系列潜在问题；从国家深入实施区域重大战略角度出发，深入分析全国城市及不同区域碳排放强度的区域差异和动态演进特性，使用空间计量模型揭示不同因素的影响。研究价值：为促进全国及各重大战略区域减排降碳工作的协调推进，出台因地制宜的减排降碳政策，加快碳达峰、碳中和步伐提供量化支撑。 | | 英文摘要: | | Research Objectives: To study the regional differences, dynamic evolution and spatial convergence of carbon emission intensity in Chinas 283 cities and major strategic regions. Research Methods: Calculating the carbon emission intensity of 283 prefecture-level or above cities across the country based on the carbon emission data released by Carbon Emission Accounts & Datasets and taking it as the research object of this paper, using Dagum Gini Index and its decomposition method to measure the difference in carbon emission intensity of major strategic regions, utilizing non-parametric kernel density estimation methods to sketch the dynamic evolution of carbon emission intensity in different regions, and carrying out σ convergence and β convergence analysis with coefficient of variation and spatial panel model. Research Findings: The carbon emission intensity of cities and major strategic regions across the country has dropped significantly, showing a clear spatial pattern of low south and high north as a whole, and the differences between groups between major strategic regions have a tendency to expand. The dynamic evolution characteristics of carbon emission intensity in different regions are quite different, and the urban polarization in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei and Yellow River basins is more obvious. There is no σ convergence in the carbon emission intensity of the cities and major strategic regions in China, but there are absolute β convergence and conditional β convergence. Different regions show different spatial effects, and the effects of economic level, industrial structure, population density, foreign investment intensity, R&D investment, and road network density on the rate of change of carbon emission intensity are significantly heterogeneous. Research Innovations: Using nighttime light data to account carbon dioxide emissions overcomes a series of potential problems with traditional energy statistics accounting. From the perspective of the countrys in-depth implementation of regional major strategies, this paper analyzes regional differences and dynamic evolution characteristics of carbon emission intensity in cities and different regions across the country, and uses spatial measurement models to reveal the impact of different factors. Research Value: Provide quantitative support for promoting the coordinated advancement of emission reduction and carbon reduction work across the country and major strategic regions, introducing emission reduction and carbon reduction policies tailored to local conditions, accelerating the pace of carbon peaking and carbon neutrality. | | 查看全文 |
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