文章摘要
李石强,冯卓.产能过剩下政府主导投资的价格指数分化效应[J].数量经济技术经济研究,2021,(7):143-158
产能过剩下政府主导投资的价格指数分化效应
Government-Dominating Investment and PPI ＆ CPI Deviation under the Overcapacity
  
DOI：
中文关键词: 政府主导投资  产能过剩  生产者价格指  数消费者价格指数
英文关键词: Government-dominating Investment  Overcapacity  PPI  CPI
基金项目:本文获得国家社会科学基金“绿色金融对实体经济高质量发展影响的微观机理与实现路径研究”（20BJL028）和中国社会科学院大学拔尖研究项目“创新型国家建设中的政府与市场关系研究”（000719075）的资助。
作者单位
李石强 中国社会科学院大学经济学院 
冯卓 中国社会科学院大学经济学院 
中文摘要:
      研究目标：定量分析我国政府主导投资拉动经济的总需求管理政策对于PPI同比快速上涨但CPI相对稳定甚至下降这一分化现象中的作用。研究方法：建立政府主导投资、PPI与CPI的VAR模型，利用2002~2017年的相关数据进行回归估计、因果关系检验、脉冲响应分析和预测方差分解，考察政府主导投资冲击对PPI和CPI走势分化的影响。研究发现：在控制了产能过剩因素以后，政府主导投资冲击会显著提高PPI同比增速，对CPI的影响则始终为负，二者的走势分化由此产生。研究创新：证实了政府主导投资扩张在PPI和CPI走势出现分化这一现象中的关键作用。已有文献没有对该现象进行过专门研究，也没有在讨论价格指数相关问题的计量模型中控制产能过剩因素。研究价值：有助于对总需求管理政策的短期和长期效果保持清醒认识，更好地理解我国当前以深化供给侧结构性改革为主线的同时也重视需求侧管理的意义。
英文摘要:
      Research Objectives: How the investment dominated by government causes the deviation between the movement of PPI and CPI, in which the PPI rises rapidly while the CPI remains stable. Research Methods: Controlling overcapacity in the gross supply, we set up a VAR model, estimate it and do the causality test, impulse-respondence analysis and variance decomposition. Research Findings: The demand for middle inputs derived from the rapidly increasing of government-dominating investment focuses mainly on the production goods, causing the PPI to increase rapidly. At the same time, the growth rate of CPI is suppressed to a low level for the existence of huge overcapacity. This is then the deviation between the PPI and CPI. The positive effect of the investment shock on PPI climbs to the peak after about 9 months, while the impact on CPI is always negative. Research Innovations: The deviation between PPI and CPI discussed in this paper has never been studied in the literature, and it's the first time to verify the effect of government-dominating investment on the deviation between PPI and CPI under the overcapacity in macroeconomics. Research Value: It is helpful for clarify the difference between the short-run and long-run effect of a certain fiscal policy and understand the meaning of emphasizing the demand-side management during the supply-side structural reform.
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