| 刘瑞翔,黄帅,范金.进口替代下的全球生产链重构及其对中国经济增长的影响[J].数量经济技术经济研究,2021,(7):83-103 |
| 进口替代下的全球生产链重构及其对中国经济增长的影响 |
| Global Production Chain Reconstruction under Import Substitution and Its Impact on China's Economic Growth |
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| DOI： |
| 中文关键词: 进口替代 生产链重构 经济增长 |
| 英文关键词: Import Substitution Production Chain Reconstruction Economic Growth |
| 基金项目:本文获得国家社科基金重点项目“价值链视角下区域一体化、专业化分工与经济高质量发展研究”（20AJL003）的资助。 |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 研究目标：在外部环境不确定且自身比较优势发生变化的背景下，研究全球生产链重构及其对中国经济增长和转型的影响。研究方法：基于OECD编制的ICIO数据库，利用结构分解方法和情景模拟法分析我国产业链重构及其对经济增长的影响。研究发现：世界经济整体关联程度在2005~2011年有所上升，在2011~2015年变化并不显著。2008年爆发的金融危机和2011年涌现的逆全球化对于全球产业链重构的影响有所不同。在2011~2015年，中国经济普遍出现国产中间品代替进口中间品的现象，使得对外关联度下降的同时，内部关联度呈现大幅度上升趋势。旺盛的国内需求是驱动中国经济增长的主要源泉，但生产链重构对经济增长产生了正面影响。研究创新：基于中间品的进口替代视角，探讨全球生产链重构给中国经济增长和转型带来的影响，同时考虑加工贸易和非加工贸易两种生产组织方式的差异。研究价值：对于中国经济整体转型和产业升级，促进可持续增长具有重要意义。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| Research Objectives：This study aims to study the restructuring of global production chains and its impact on China's economic growth and transformation under the background of uncertain external environment and changes in China's own comparative advantages. Research Methods：Based on the ICIO database compiled by the OECD and distinguished the processing trade and non-processing trade，this paper used the structural decomposition method and scenario simulation method to analyze the reconstruction of China's industrial chain and its impact on economic growth. Research Findings: The overall degree of world economic relevance increased between 2005 and 2011，and the change was not significant between 2011 and 2015. The financial crisis that broke out in 2008 and the de-globalization that emerged in 2011 have different impacts on the restructuring of the global industrial chain.From 2011 to 2015，the phenomenon of domestically-made intermediate products replacing imported intermediate products has generally appeared in the Chinese economy，resulting in a significant decline in external relevance，while internal relevance has shown a significant upward trend. During the analysis period，strong domestic demand was the main source of driving China's economic growth，but the restructuring of the production chain had a positive impact on economic growth. Research Innovations：This paper discusses the reconstruction of the global production chain and its impact on China's economic growth and transformation based on the perspective of import substitution of intermediate goods，while taking into account the differences between processing trade and non-processing trade. Research Value：It is of importance for the overall transformation of China's economy and industrial upgrading to promote sustainable growth. |
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