| 闫冰倩,冯明.服务业结构性扩张与去工业化问题再审视[J].数量经济技术经济研究,2021,(4):42-62 |
| 服务业结构性扩张与去工业化问题再审视 |
| The Evolution, Characteristics and Enlightenment of Four Global Debt Waves |
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| DOI： |
| 中文关键词: 服务业扩张 去工业化 投入产出 结构分解分析 |
| 英文关键词: Expansion of the Service Sector Deindustrialization Input-Output Structural Decomposition Analysis |
| 基金项目:本文得到国家社会科学基金青年项目“宏观债务与高杠杆的形成机制及对策研究”（17CJY054）和国家自然科学基金青年项目“全球价值链视角下我国区域真实能源利用率与减排路径研究”（71903195）的资助。 |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 研究目标：考察2007~2015年中国服务业增加值占GDP比重上升的成因，并结合国际数据对“去工业化”问题重新审视，探究中国经济结构的差异性特征。研究方法：运用拓展的结构分解分析方法测算不同驱动因素对中国服务业增加值占GDP比重上升的贡献程度；并结合隐含增加值的概念，运用多国面板数据回归重新审视“去工业化”问题以及中国服务业扩张中的独特之处。研究发现：“生产结构因素”在研究区间内对中国服务业扩张的贡献率最大，“最终需求因素”次之，“相对价格因素”和“相对增加值率因素”也有一定正贡献，“国内供给率因素”贡献为负。与国际经验值相比，中国经济现阶段的服务业扩张呈现显著结构性差异，服务业扩张与第一、二产业之间关联相对更为紧密，“中间投入渠道”是主渠道。中国当前处于去工业化的“第一拐点”和“第二拐点”之间。研究创新：拓展了结构分解分析框架，更为系统地探究服务业增加值占GDP比重变化驱动因素；通过纳入服务业中间投入的“修正的制造业增加值/GDP”重新检验产业结构变迁与经济发展水平关系的国际经验，提炼中国的典型特征事实。研究价值：有助于从产业相互关联的视角，在结构和机制层面加深文献对产业结构演进规律尤其是近年来中国经济服务业化和去工业化等问题的理解，可更科学地为诸如产业结构转型、制造业与服务业融合发展等政策议题提供参考。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| Research Objectives: Investigating the driving forces behind the increase of Chinese service sector's share in GDP, reevaluating the “deindustrialization” phenomenon by applying the international data and revealing the unique characteristic of Chinese industrial structure. Research Methods: Extending the structural decomposition analysis to analyze the contribution of each driving factors to the increase of Chinese service sector's share in GDP; applying the concept of “embodied value added” to reevaluate the “deindustrialization” phenomenon. Research Findings: Among the five driving forces, changes in interindustry structure played a dominant role and contributed 47.77% to this rise. Comparing to the international rules, the expansion of service industry in China showed distinct features: the share of services output used for final consumption was relatively low, while that used for intermediate input was relatively high. Meanwhile, though the share of manufacturing value-added of GDP in China has passed the turning point, the share of the modified manufacturing value-added of GDP (which included the valued-added of service industries embodied in manufacturing final products) was still stable. Research Innovations: We have extended the structural decomposition analysis framework to systematically explore the driving forces underlying China's service sector's share growth in GDP. Besides, by taking the service intermediates into account, we re-evaluated the relationship between structural change and economic development level based on the cross-country data and summaried China's stylized characterastics. Research Value: From the perspective of industrial interdefendence, our analysis can help deepening our understanding of the mechanism and structure of deindustrialization and the expansion of service industries. The results can shed light on the policy issues such as industrial structural transformation and the relationship between manufacturing and service industries. |
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