| 赵永亮,吴辰星,俞萍萍.全球产出调整分析框架下汇率升值的产出效应研究[J].数量经济技术经济研究,2019,(2):103-119 |
| 全球产出调整分析框架下汇率升值的产出效应研究 |
| Research on the Output Effect of Exchange Rate Appreciation under the Framework of World Output Adjustment |
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| DOI： |
| 中文关键词: 全球产出调整分析框架 全球价值链 汇率 行业 WIOD |
| 英文关键词: Framework of Global Output Adjustment Global Value Chain Exchange Rate Industry WIOD |
| 基金项目:本文获得国家社会科学基金一般项目“中国分行业人民币汇率指数构建研究”（15BJY175）的资助。 |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 研究目标：评估世界几种主要货币升值对各国GDP的作用效应以及对各国各行业增加值的作用效应。研究方法：基于全球价值链视角，建立全球产出调整分析框架，应用世界投入产出数据库（WIOD）数据，对货币升值效应进行评估。研究发现：货币升值对国内外GDP具有不同方向的作用效应，批发贸易等行业对汇率升值敏感。研究创新：推导建立了全球产出调整分析框架以及汇率变动引致全球产出调整分析框架。研究价值：依据全球各国分行业增加值变动模型、全球各国GDP变动模型，可以计算由于成本冲击、需求冲击等因素导致的全球各国各行业增加值变动水平以及各个生产环节增加值变动水平，该项技术为进一步细化研究全球经济联系提供了支持。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| Research Objectives: In this paper we investigate how software and information technology service (SITS) industry development affects China‘s economic growth. Research Methods:We conduct empirical analysis with dynamic economic growth model, using provincial panel data from 2002 to 2016.Research Findings: We find that the SITS industry development has a significant role in promoting China‘s economic growth，and the correlation between SITS and economic growth has range effects. The SITS industry in the China‘s east coast area is much more developed than the mideast area, while some units in the west area are catching up quickly. Research Innovations: Based on the first hand of industry data, our analysis has provided further evidence that the application of information technology significantly contributed to China‘s economic growth from 2002 to 2016. Research Value: Our results suggest continue the software industry stimulating policy for sustainable period which is often under arguments, also shine some lights on the further revision of the policy. |
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