文章摘要
白洁,梁丹旎,周睿.中国与G20国家贸易关系的调整与优化[J].数量经济技术经济研究,2018,(10):96-110
中国与G20国家贸易关系的调整与优化
Adjustment and Optimization of Trade Relationship between China and G20
  
DOI:
中文关键词: G20  中国  贸易  社会网络分析
英文关键词: G20  China  Trade  Social Network Analysis
基金项目:本文获得财政部课题“国际经济治理结构研究”、山东省社会科学规划研究项目“基于服务贸易新规则的山东服务业开放对策研究”(17CZKJ05)的资助
作者单位
白洁 山东财经大学经济学院中国社会科学院世界经济与政治研究所 
梁丹旎 山东财经大学经济学院 
周睿 江苏省社会科学院区域现代化研究院 
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中文摘要:
      研究目标:分析1999~2015年G20成员方贸易往来状况;中国在G20中贸易地位的历史变迁;中国与G20其他成员国贸易关系的布局与调整。研究方法:利用社会网络分析方法对G20贸易网的多项指标进行测算,并进行凝聚子群分析。研究发现:一是中国贸易影响力逐渐增强。2004年之后G20其他成员方对中国的经济依赖度超过中国对其的经济依赖度,且差距逐年增加。二是中国对G20贸易网的贡献度显著增加,点度中心度一路飙升,从边缘国家逐渐进入半边缘国家最后稳居核心国家之列。三是G20成员方可以分为欧洲、南美、亚太和北美四大子群,中国位于亚太子群。其中欧洲和北美子群相对稳定,南美和亚太子群变动较为强烈。地缘政治经济因素、历史因素、贸易协定、贸易安排以及新兴经济体的成长性均对凝聚子群的形成和变动均产生深刻影响。研究创新:利用社会网络分析法对G20贸易网的多项指标和凝聚子群进行测算分析,深入剖析G20国家、中国与G20国家贸易关系的调整与优化。研究价值:为中国进一步优化与G20国家的贸易关系,布局中国贸易架构提供相应的理论基础和政策建议。
英文摘要:
      Research Objectives: This paper analyses the members‘ trade situation of G20, the change of China‘s trade status in G20 and the trade arrangement and adjustment among China and G20 in 1999~2015. Research Methods: Using social network analysis,we measure several indexes of G20 trade network and make analysis of condensed subgroup. Research Findings: China‘s trade influence became stronger gradually. After 2004, the other members of the G20‘s dependence on China‘s economy is bigger than China‘s dependence on their economy, and the gap increases year by year. China‘s contribution to the G20 trade network has increased significantly, the degree centrality of China has increased rapidly. China has gradually moved from marginal countries to half-edge countries and finally stabilized the core countries.G20 can be divided into four major subgroups: Europe, South America, Asia Pacific and North America. China belongs to Asia pacific subgroup. Among them, the subgroup of Europe and North America is relatively stable, while there are big changes in South America and Asia Pacific subgroup. The formation and change of subgroup is mainly determinated by geo-political and economic factors,historical factor,trade agreement and economic growth of emerging countries. Research Innovations:Using social network analysis,we measure several indexes of G20 trade network and make analysis of condensed subgroup.Then we study trade relation adjustment and upgrading of G20 and China. Research Value: This paper provides the corresponding theoretical basis and policy suggestions for China to further optimize its trade relations with G20 countries and layout China‘s trade structure.
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