文章摘要
郭建伟.中亚五国货币与其锚货币是线性关系吗?[J].数量经济技术经济研究,2018,(10):40-58
中亚五国货币与其锚货币是线性关系吗?
Is It a Linear Relationship between the FCACs Currencies and Their Anchor Currencies?
  
DOI:
中文关键词: 中亚五国  外部市场  贸易结构  贸易依存度  货币锚
英文关键词: Five Central Asian Countries (FCACs)  External Markets  Trade Structure  Trade Dependence  Monetary Anchor
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作者单位
郭建伟 中国人民银行乌鲁木齐中心支行 
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中文摘要:
      研究目标:探讨中亚五国货币与其锚货币及外部市场依赖程度之间线性关系、“U”形或倒“U”形关系,以及“C”形或反“C”形关系的有效性。研究方法:利用2013年9月~2015年8月和2015年9月~2017年9月两个时期的面板数据,采用拓展的货币计量模型和动态SYS-GMM方法进行研究。研究发现:中亚五国货币的隐性锚货币为美元、欧元、人民币和卢布;中亚五国出口贸易结构和进口贸易依存度的提升有利于巩固人民币的隐性锚货币地位。研究创新:在测度中亚五国外部市场依赖程度的基础上,分析发现中亚五国货币与其锚货币及外部市场依赖程度之间存在稳定的“C”形关系。研究价值:本文验证了“C”形关系更具有效性,中亚五国锚货币合适的权重设定为:美元权重占51.43%,欧元权重占26.06%,人民币权重占13.64%,卢布权重占8.87%。
英文摘要:
      Research Objectives: This paper is to discuss the effectiveness of the linear relationships, U-shaped or inverted U-shaped relationships, and C-type or anti-C-type relationships between the currencies of the FCACs and their anchor currencies and external market dependencies. Research Methods: By using the panel data for the two periods from September 2013 to August 2015 and from September 2015 to September 2017, this paper studies the models by applying the expanded currency measurement model and the dynamic SYS-GMM method. Research Findings: There is a stable C-type relationship and the FCACs‘ anchor currencies are the US dollar, the euro, the RMB and the ruble. The increasing in the export structure and import dependencies of the FCACs are conducive to the consolidation of the RMB‘s anchor currency status. Research Innovations: Based on the measurement of the external market dependencies of the FCACs, empirical analysis has found that there is a stable C-type relationship between the FCACs and their anchor currencies and external market dependencies. Research Value: It is verified that the C-type relationship is more effective. The weights of the four anchor currencies of the FCACs should be set to: the US dollar accounts for 51.43%, the euro accounts for 26.06%, the RMB accounts for 13.64%, and the ruble accounts for 8.87%.
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