文章摘要
王劲屹.农村金融发展、资本存量提升与农村经济增长[J].数量经济技术经济研究,2018,(2):64-81
农村金融发展、资本存量提升与农村经济增长
Rural Financial Development, Capital Stock Increase, and Rural Economy Growth
  
DOI:
中文关键词: 农村金融  资本存量  VEC模型  Bootstrap Chow检验
英文关键词: Rural Finance  Capital Stock  VECM  Bootstrap Chow Test
基金项目:本文得到教育部人文社会科学研究规划基金项目“罗尔斯正义原则视角下我国农村金融体系独立性重构研究”(14YJAZH075)和国家社科基金项目“农民合作社社会资本的多维减贫效应及政策研究”(16BGL125)资助。
作者单位
王劲屹 五邑大学经济管理学院 
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中文摘要:
      研究目标:农村金融发展、资本存量提升对农村经济增长的影响。研究方法:采用永续盘存法测算农村资本存量,以1980~2014年小样本数据构建VEC模型,再进一步用Bootstrap Chow检验来研究制度变量的影响。研究发现:农户储蓄存款、资本存量能显著促进农村经济的增长,但提高农村金融机构存贷比对经济贡献不大;农村资本存量发挥正效应要经历较长时滞;农村金融促进经济增长的力度受制于国家宏观政策。研究创新:从技术层面对现有文献的金融指标进行精练,重新估测农村资本存量,特别注重小样本约束下的VEC建模技术,并在Chow检验时采用Bootstrap仿真方法来确定临界值。研究价值:从技术上深化了VEC模型适用性探讨,增强了有关农村金融实证结论的有效性。
英文摘要:
      Research Objectives:This paper explores the influences on the rural economic growth from the development rural finance and the promotion capital stock Research Methods: In this paper, the author used the perpetual inventory method to measure the rural capital stock, and then used small sample data of 1980 to 2014 to construct the VECM Finally, the paper employed the Bootstrap Chow test to study the effect of system variables Research Findings: The rural household savings and capital stock can significantly promote the growth of rural economy, but the loan to deposit ratio can not do it The rural capital play a positive effect with long lags, and the magnitude of the rural finance converting into rural GDP is highly affected by the national policy Research Innovations:The paper refines the indices in the existing literature and makes a revaluation of the rural capital stock And then, the paper used the special technology to make VECM for the small sample data The model were strictly controlled the number of variable and lag,and used the Bootstrap Chow test based on the simulation method Research Value: The paper deepens the applicability of VECM by the discussion about the technology Therefore, it can enhance the effectiveness of the empirical conclusions about rural finance
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