| 张德荣,郑晓婷.“限购令”是抑制房价上涨的有效政策工具吗？[J].数量经济技术经济研究,2013,30(11):56-72 |
| “限购令”是抑制房价上涨的有效政策工具吗？ |
| Is House Purchase Limit an Effective Policy to Control Housing Price? |
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| DOI： |
| 中文关键词: 限购政策 房地产调控 倍差法 |
| 英文关键词: House Purchase Limit House Market Control Difference in Differences |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 2010年以来我国政府实施的五次房地产宏观调控中，以数量管制性质的“限购令”最为严苛，“限购令”对近年来我国住宅价格快速上涨趋势产生了怎样的效果？本文按照户籍和限购地域两个标准对限购政策了进行细分，在倍差法的研究框架内，通过动态面板模型GMM估计来评估限购政策细则对抑制住宅价格上涨的效果。实证研究发现：(1)对非户籍购房人实施限购的政策效果最为明显；(2)限购范围影响政策效果，仅在市区范围内限购难以起到抑制房价上涨的作用。通过对限购政策效果的评估，本文认为，投资(投机)性需求是推动我国住宅价格上升的重要力量，我国房地产泡沫的根源在于我国粗放的经济增长方式，通过货币超发带动经济增长的发展模式是房地产泡沫的根源所在，也是我国房地产市场调控的难度所在。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| Since the year 2010, the government of China has implemented macro adjustments and controls over the house market for five times, the strictest one of which is the “house purchase limit”. As a limit on quantity demanded with the nature of administration, how will House Purchase Limit influence the increasingly high housing price? We firstly classify the limit by household registered and the area restricted and then use GMM estimation of dynamic panel data to analyze the effects of limit on the high-rising housing price under the framework of difference in differences. The findings are as follows: (1)The most obvious effect is on people with no household registered; (2)The restriction of area also has influence on the housing price and it is difficult to reduce the high-rising housing price provided that the limit is carried out only in the main business area of the city. We have discovered that the investment(speculation) demand is the essential factor influencing housing price. In order to solve the problem of bubbles in the house market, we are supposed to deal with the problems beyond the house market, that is to say, the fundamental cause of bubbles in the house market is due to the economy. It is difficult to control the house market without reducing the excess liquidity which is the motivation of the economic growth since the reform period. |
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