文章摘要
陆前进,李治国.人民币实际有效汇率的分解和马歇尔—勒纳条件的修正[J].数量经济技术经济研究,2013,30(4):3-18
人民币实际有效汇率的分解和马歇尔—勒纳条件的修正
The Decomposition of RMB real effective exchange rate and the Marshall-Lerner condition revisions
  
DOI:
中文关键词: 实际有效汇率  贸易收支  需求弹性  马歇尔-勒纳条件  “J”曲线
英文关键词: Real Effective Exchange Rate  Trade Balance  Demand Elasticity  Marshall-Lerner Condition  J Curve
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作者单位
陆前进 复旦大学国际金融系 
李治国 复旦大学管理学院 
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中文摘要:
      马歇尔-勒纳条件是探讨货币贬值改善贸易收支的规律,本文根据人民币实际有效汇率的特点,把它分解为美元有效汇率和人民币对美元汇率之积形式,在此基础之上,本文重新考察货币贬值改善贸易收支的条件,对传统的马歇尔-勒纳条件进行修正。从我们研究中可以看出美元实际有效汇率变化对马歇尔-勒纳条件修正的重要作用,这包括美元有效汇率对人民币汇率弹性和人民币在美元有效汇率中的权重的两种影响。另一方面,即使人民币实际有效汇率贬值存在“J”曲线效应,人民币对美元实际汇率贬值,“J”曲线是否存在还要依赖一定的条件。本文实证研究结果显示出口(或进口)与人民币对美元实际汇率、美元实际有效汇率指数和外国收入(或国内收入)之间存在着显著的协整关系,美元实际有效汇率和人民币对美元实际汇率也存在显著的协整关系。从弹性的变化来看,修正的马歇尔-勒纳条件成立,同时人民币对美元实际汇率贬值有利于改善贸易收支,美元实际有效汇率贬值会恶化中国贸易收支。而对“J”曲线效应的实证研究显示无论是人民币实际有效汇率,还是人民币对美元实际汇率贬值和美元实际有效汇率贬值,我国“J”曲线效应均不显著。
英文摘要:
      The Marshall-Lerner condition is the law of the currency devaluation to improve trade balance, according to the characteristics of RMB real effective exchange rate, this paper decomposes it into the product of US dollar effective exchange rates and RMB exchange rate against the dollar, on this basis, this paper re-examine the traditional Marshall-Lerner condition of currency devaluation to improve the trade balance. From our studies, it can be seen that US dollar real effective exchange rate plays an important role in revising the Marshall-Lerner condition, such as the effects of US dollar real effective exchange rate elasticity against RMB exchange rate and the Yuan's weight in the US dollar effective exchange rate index. On the other hand, even though "J" curve effect holds under the depreciation of RMB real effective exchange rate, whether "J" curve exists or not depends on some certain condition under RMB real exchange rate depreciation against the US dollar. This empirical results reveals among exports (or imports), Yuan real exchange rate against US dollar, US dollar real effective exchange rate index and foreign income (or domestic income) ,there exists an significant cointegration relationship, and between US Dollar real effective exchange rate and Yuan real exchange rate against US Dollar, there also exists a significant cointegration relationship. From the elasticity changes, the revised Marshall-Lerner conditions hold, meanwhile the devaluation of RMB real exchange rate against the dollar can improve the trade balance and the devaluation of US dollar real effective exchange rate may have the negative effects. The empirical studies on "J" curve show no matter whether RMB real effective exchange rate or RMB real exchange rate against the US dollar and US dollar real effective exchange rate are depreciated, J" curve effect is not significant.
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