| 粟芳,初立苹.中国金融业综合融资能力的动态比较及特征分析[J].数量经济技术经济研究,2013,30(11):90-107 | | 中国金融业综合融资能力的动态比较及特征分析 | | Dynamic Comparison and Difference Decomposition for the Financing Capacity of Finance Industry in China | | | | DOI： | | 中文关键词: 金融业 融资能力 融资渠道 融资怪圈 | | 英文关键词: Finance Industry Financing capacity Financing Channels Financing Strange Circle | | 基金项目: | | | 中文摘要: | | 银行业的快速增长使资本充足率告急，保险业保费收入的快速增长也使保险业偿付能力告急。银行业和保险业都急需融资，并都陷入了相似的融资怪圈。本文利用熵值法、动态评价分析法和泰尔指数法，动态分析了中国银行业、寿险和财险业在2007-2010年间的综合融资能力。数据分析表明，利润是决定综合融资能力的根本因素，利润增长率是决定投资者预期的根本因素。财险业因在样本期间具有较高的利润增长率而具有明显很强的综合融资能力，而银行业次之，寿险业的综合融资能力较差。更为具体的是，银行业因具有持续较高的利润率而具有较强的内部融资能力，寿险业的债务融资能力明显偏弱，财险业因高利润增长率而具有较高的吸引资本的权益融资能力。融资渠道贡献度的分析则表明，这三个行业也存在明显的股权融资偏好，权益融资对综合融资能力的影响最大，而内部融资的影响一直较弱。差异分析则表明，寿险业因业务的复杂性而具有较大的内部差异，而银行业和财险业的表现则相对集中。而且，由于市场的调节，资金在各行各业之间能较为自由地流动，故行业之间的差异不大。金融业融资能力差异的主要来源则是行业内的差异。本文最后的结论表明，金融业只有沿着“改善经营—提高利润—增强融资能力”这一路径持续发展，才能从根本上脱离“融资怪圈”。 | | 英文摘要: | | In these years, the premium income of Chinese insurance market keeps increasing fast, which decreases the solvency of insurance. Insurance need more capitals. While, the investment return rate keeps decreasing. This makes it more difficult to increasing capitals. Banks also face the same problem in China. Both of them are in the financing strange circle. Using entropy method, dynamic evaluation, and Theil index, the financing capacity of Chinese bank and insurance market are compared from 2007 to 2010. The results show that profit is the most important factor to determine the financial capacity. Profit increasing rate is most important to attract investment. Non-life insurance has highest financial capacity because of the highest profit increasing rate in the sample years. Bank is the second and life insurance is the last one. In detail, bank has the highest interior financing capacity because of the high and stable profit, life insurance is very bad in debt financing and nonlife insurance performs very well in equity financing just because of the highest profit increasing rate in these years. According with different financing channel, they prefer equity financing very much. Equity financing is most important for them, while internal financing is the worst one. From the differential analysis, the difference of life insurance is very big, while those in bank and nonlife insurance are not very big. Because of the adjustment of market, capital can move freely among companies and industries. The difference from same industries is bigger than those among difference industries. At last, we find that finance industry can break away from the financing strange circle if they develop as improving management - improving profit - improving financing. | | 查看全文 |
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