| 元惠萍,刘飒.社会融资规模作为金融宏观调控中介目标的适用性分析[J].数量经济技术经济研究,2013,30(10):94-108 |
| 社会融资规模作为金融宏观调控中介目标的适用性分析 |
| Analysis on the Appropriateness of Aggregate Financing of the Economy as an Intermediate Target |
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| DOI： |
| 中文关键词: 金融宏观调控中介目标 社会融资规模 人民币贷款 广义货币 |
| 英文关键词: Financial Intermediate Targets Aggregate Financing of the Economy, RMB Banking Loan Broad Money |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 本文采用2002年第1季度至2012年第2季度数据考察了三个备选的金融宏观中介目标——社会融资规模、人民币贷款和广义货币M2。图形直观分析、脉冲响应分析以及协整关系分析三种方法均表明：第一，M2不是一个理想的中介目标。第二，不论从与实体经济还是与物价指数的关系看、从中短期影响还是从长期均衡关系看，社会融资规模在三个中介目标中表现最好，建议我国以社会融资规模作为金融宏观调控的中介目标。第三，实体经济较物价指数更快受到金融宏观调控政策（中介目标变量）的影响。调控发生后，实体经济约5季后正效应达到最大，物价指数约在2至3年间响应达到最大。政策时滞对制定前瞻性的金融宏观政策具有一定指导意义。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| The paper analyzes three optional financial intermediate targets - aggregate financing of the economy, RMB banking loan, and broad money M2, using data from 2002 to June 2012. Three approaches of graph analysis, impulse responses, and co-integretion analysis give rise to the same conclusions. First, M2 is not a good intermediate target. Second, aggregate financing of the economy is the best one according to its relationship with both the real economy and the price index in the short and long run. We suggest adopting aggregate financing of the economy as the financial intermediate target in China. Third, the lags of intermediate targets to the real economy and the price index are respectively 5 seasons, and 2 to 3 years. The concrete policy lags could be instructive to making forward-looking policies. |
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