| 周先平,冀志斌,李标.社会融资规模适合作为货币政策中间目标吗？[J].数量经济技术经济研究,2013,30(10):79-93 |
| 社会融资规模适合作为货币政策中间目标吗？ |
| Is All-system Financing Aggregate a Good Intermediate Target? A Perspective from Time Varying Transmission of Monetary Policy |
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| DOI： |
| 中文关键词: 社会融资规模 货币政策时变传导效应 SV-TVP-SVAR |
| 英文关键词: All-system Financing Aggregate Time-varying Transmission Effect of Monetary Policy SV-TVP-SVAR |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 本文采用随机波动的时变参数结构向量自回归模型（SV-TVP-SVAR），分别考察了M1、M2、银行间7天同业拆借利率、贷款、社会融资规模与消费者价格指数、宏观经济景气一致指数之间的关系。发现货币政策传导效应具有非常显著的时变特征，没有一个变量适合在所有时期作为货币政策中间目标；就价格水平而言，从2009年开始，M1是一个最优的货币政策中间目标；而就宏观经济而言，从2010年开始，社会融资规模是一个最优的货币政策中间目标。货币政策调控时不能仅仅参考某一个变量作为中间目标。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| We employ a SV-TVP-SVAR model to examine the relationships between M1, M2, Shibor-1w, loan, all-system financing aggregate and CPI, macroeconomic coincident index respectively. We argue that monetary policy transmission has great time-varying effects and none of the variables mentioned above is a good intermediate target for all the time. M1 is an optimal target from 2009 in terms of price level and all-system financing aggregate is an optimal one from 2010 in terms of macro-economy. The People’s Bank of China maybe takes multi-intermediate targets. |
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