| 张杰,吴润生,杨连星.中国出口增长的二元边际分解与区域差异[J].数量经济技术经济研究,2013,30(10):3-18 | | 中国出口增长的二元边际分解与区域差异 | | Decomposition and Regional Differences of China's Export Growth | | | | DOI： | | 中文关键词: 中国出口增长 二元边际 集约边际 扩展边际 区域差异性 | | 英文关键词: Export Growth in China Extensive Margin Intensive Margin Regional Development Difference | | 基金项目: | | | 中文摘要: | | 本文利用2000至2006年间的海关数据，从企业出口的扩展和集约边际二元视角来对中国出口增长的动力进行分解与测算。结果发现：首先，中国的出口增长主要是依靠企业出口的集约边际扩张所贡献，而扩展边际对出口增长的贡献相对较弱。加入WTO对中国出口增长的促进效应主要是通过集约边际来实现，而扩展边际的作用有限且呈现短暂性；其次，集约边际中存活率和深化率的差异是造成我国地区间出口增长差异的重要因素，越是经济发达的沿海地区越是依靠集约边际中存活率和深化率来推动出口增长。中国出口关系的持续时间非常短，平均为1.9年，且越是欠发达地区的出口关系的持续时间越是短暂；最后，通过“反事实”法测算了我国不同区域的出口增长潜力，得出提升企业出口关系的存活率和深化率是促进欠发达地区出口增长主要途径的结论。 | | 英文摘要: | | In this paper, making use of 2000 to 2006 between customs data, decomposition and estimates exports from the enterprise expansion and intensive margin of two perspectives on China's export growth momentum .The results showed that: First, China's export growth relies mainly on export expansion of intensive marginal contribution, and expand margins on exports contribution to growth is relatively weak.WTO on China's export growth promoting effect is mainly achieved through the intensive margin, while the expansion of a limited role and showed marginal transient; Secondly, the intensive margin of difference in the rate of survival and deepening of China is caused by differences between regions important factor in export growth, the more economically developed coastal areas rely more intensive marginal rate of survival and deepening to promote export growth. Chinese exports of duration relations is very short , with an average of 1.9 years, and the more underdeveloped regions export more short duration of the relationship; Finally, through the "counterfactual" method estimates the country's export growth potential of different regions, the improvement of relationship between survival and deepening export rate is to promote export growth in underdeveloped regions major route conclusions. | | 查看全文 |
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