| 封铁英,杨洲.引入土地流转因素的新型农村社会养老保险基金预测[J].数量经济技术经济研究,2013,30(6):3-18 |
| 引入土地流转因素的新型农村社会养老保险基金预测 |
| On the New Rural Social Endowment Insurance Fund Forecasting After Introducing the Land Circulation Factors |
| |
| DOI： |
| 中文关键词: 土地流转 新型农村社会养老保险 基金预测 精算建模 政策仿真 |
| 英文关键词: Land Circulation New Rural Social Endowment Insurance Fund Forecasting Actuarial Modeling Policy Simulation |
| 基金项目: |
|
| 中文摘要: |
| 本文以政策外部性关联与协同效应为切入点，通过陕西省西安市新农保试点区县农民问卷调查，对引入土地流转因素的新型农村社会养老保险基金预测进行精算建模和政策仿真研究。结果表明：土地流转因素对新农保参保率、缴费率具有显著影响，基金收支呈现由盈余转向缺口、并逐年扩大的趋势，基金、制度存在双重失衡风险。通过关键制度因素的单一、组合调整结果分析对比，提出促进土地流转与新农保制度良性融合与可持续发展的对策建议。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| Based on the questionnaire field investigation of farmers in the pilots in Xi’an City of Shaanxi Province, this paper takes policy externality correlation and coordination effect as starting point, and constructs the New Rural Social Endowment Insurance Fund forecasting actual model and simulates the fund income and expenditure. The research results show that land circulation factors have an important effect on participation ratio and contribution rate of New Rural Social Endowment Insurance, and the fund surplus changes to fund absence, and the fund gap is enlarged gradually, and the system and fund would be faced up with unbalance risk. According to the single and combination factors adjustment analysis and comparison, the paper puts forward some suggestions in order to improve these two systems integration and sustainable development of land circulation and New Rural Social Endowment Insurance. |
| 查看全文 |
