| 王丽,李贤.一个改进的金融CGE模型及在分析存款准备金率中的应用[J].数量经济技术经济研究,2013,30(5):152-160 |
| 一个改进的金融CGE模型及在分析存款准备金率中的应用 |
| Impact of Change in the Deposit Reserve Ratio on Chinese Macro-economy |
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| DOI： |
| 中文关键词: 存款准备金率 金融一般均衡模型 政策模拟 货币政策 |
| 英文关键词: reserve ratio financial financial CGE model policy simulation monetary policy |
| 基金项目: |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 本文对传统的CGE模型进行了扩展和改进，通过加入商业银行和中央银行两个部门以及对储蓄—投资的转化机制较为细致和系统的设定，构建了一个金融可计算一般均衡分析框架。在此分析框架下，我们建立了金融—社会核算矩阵（FSAM），并以此为数据基础，模拟了存款准备金率变动对我国宏观经济、部门经济的冲击效果。模拟结果表明，存款准备金率的调整在一定程度上能够调控宏观经济，并且下调准备金率的政策效果比上调准备金率的政策效果更为明显。从调整存款准备金率对部门产出的影响看，在居民的固定投资方向仅为建筑业的假设下，建筑业对存款准备金率的反应最为敏感，其次为服务业和工业，而农业部门的政策反应相对较小。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| This paper extends a conventional CGE model to a financial CGE model by joining the two agents of commercial banks and central banks, as well as detailed description of savings - investment mechanism. Based on this framework, we establish a Financial Social Accounting Matrix and simulate the impact of changes in the deposit reserve ratio on Chinese macro-economy and sectoral economy. The simulation results show that change in deposit reserve ratio is an effective tool to control and adjust Chinese macro-economy in some degree. Impact of decreasing the deposit reserve ratio has stronger effect on the economy than that of increasing the ratio. In terms of the impact on the sectoral economy, construction sector is the most sensitive sector to the change in deposit reserve ratio followed by service sector and manufacturing sector, the response of the agricultural sector is relatively weaker than other sectors. |
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