| 王晓芳,王瑞君.总体经验模式分解视角下的PPI与CPI波动特征及传导关系研究[J].数量经济技术经济研究,2013,30(5):128-139 |
| 总体经验模式分解视角下的PPI与CPI波动特征及传导关系研究 |
| An Analysis on the Volatility and Transmission Relationship between PPI and CPI |
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| DOI： |
| 中文关键词: 总体经验 模式分解 传导关系 PPI CPI |
| 英文关键词: Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition Transmission Relationship PPI CPI |
| 基金项目: |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 本文采用总体经验模式分解（EEMD）和计量分析的方法，对国内PPI和CPI的波动特征和传导关系进行了深入研究。结果显示，二者均由高频分量、低频分量和趋势项构成，其中，高频分量体现的是国内物价中随机波动的信息；低频分量传递的是一定时期内的物价变动信息；趋势项反映的是物价中不轻易变动的信息。对上述结构分量的Granger因果检验表明，PPI和CPI之间的传导关系主要受低频分量和趋势项影响：低频分量中只存在PPI到CPI的单向因果关系；而在趋势项中存在不对称的传导方式，即在1%的水平上CPI到PPI存在单向因果关系，在5%的水平上二者互为因果。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| An in-depth research on China’s PPI and CPI volatility and the transmission mechanism between them is conducted in this paper based on ensemble empirical mode decomposition as well as relevant quantitative analysis methods. The results show that PPI and CPI are composed of high-frequency, low frequency and trends respectively, in which the high-frequency component reflects the constantly changing information in the domestic prices, the low-frequency component expresses the information of price changes in a certain period while the trend represents relatively constant information of prices. The Granger causality tests on the structural components involved here show that transmission relationship between PPI and CPI is mainly influenced by the low frequency components and trends, while only one-way causal relationship from PPI to CPI exists between the low frequency components; besides, there is two-way asymmetrical transmission relationship between the trends; namely, only one-way causal relationship from CPI to PPI is significant in the 1% level, and mutual causality between PPI and CPI is significant at the 5% level. Therefore, the Government should strengthen regulation of the supply-side in order to control the current inflation. |
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