| 柳应华,宗刚,杨柳青.不确定条件下旅游投资决策分析方法的对比与应用[J].数量经济技术经济研究,2013,30(5):103-115 |
| 不确定条件下旅游投资决策分析方法的对比与应用 |
| The Comparison and Application of Investment Decision-making Method for the Tourism Investment under Uncertainty |
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| DOI： |
| 中文关键词: 旅游投资 不确定性 投资决策方法 对比应用 |
| 英文关键词: Tourism Investment Uncertainty Investment Decision-making Method Comparison and Application |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 已有的基于风险的LCCBA中的收益概率模型构建需要较多的案例数据积累，而目前我国旅游投资决策分析总体上处于起步阶段，缺少相应的数据积累。本文对比分析各种现有投资决策分析方法之后，得出基于Shackle模型的不确定条件下的旅游投资决策方法更适用于我国当前的旅游投资分析，并通过Monte Carlo仿真的方法分析了该方法的有效性。不同于基于风险的LCCBA，该方法不需构建完整的收益概率模型，仅需估算出收益分布范围，就可以客观地对投资项目进行经济性分析，因而更适用于我国当前情况下的旅游投资决策分析。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| The existing risk based LCCBA needs adequate case dada to construct the complete probability model for gain estimating. Unfortunately, the tourism investment analysis in China is in his infancy, and there is not enough case data accumulated for the probability model construction. So, in this paper, a Shackle based tourism investment analysis method is introduced, and Monte Carlo simulation is carried out to validate the effectiveness of this analysis method. Unlike the risk based LCCBA, this method needn’t the complete probability model construction, but only need correctly estimating the range of future gain of programs under consideration. Thus, the Shackle based method is more suitable for current tourism investment analysis in China. |
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