| 李宾.全球最优碳税的一个定量估算[J].数量经济技术经济研究,2013,30(4):19-33 | | 全球最优碳税的一个定量估算 | | A Quantitative Estimate on the Global Optimal Carbon Tax | | | | DOI： | | 中文关键词: 碳税 气候变化 化石能源 | | 英文关键词: Carbon Tax Climate Change Fossil Fuel | | 基金项目: | | | 中文摘要: | | 碳排放具有全球外部性，从而碳减排需要关于全球最优碳税的估计。本文在Nordhaus的DICE-2007模型基础上构造出一个把化石能源消耗内生化的DICE-E模型，并更新了参数校准和初始值设定。数值模拟表明，2010年的全球最优碳税水平为每吨碳91.9元（2010年价），稍低于DICE-2007的估计，但碳税的攀升速度比DICE-2007的快得多。若碳税在2015年左右开征，则基于本文的计算可给出这样的建议——以93号汽油为例，碳税从每升0.1元起步，每年提高1分钱，至2020年提高到0.15元。 | | 英文摘要: | | Emissions of carbon dioxide have global externalities, so carbon mitigation needs estimates on global optimal carbon tax. This paper constructs an IAM model, DICE-E, based on Nordhaus’ DICE-2007. Its major novelty is the endogenous consumption of fossil fuels. Calibration of parameters and evaluation of initialization are updated. Numerical simulation indicates that the optimal carbon tax in 2010 is RMB 91.9 (2010 constant price) per metric ton of carbon emitted, which is lower a bit than the result of DICE-2007. However, the rising speed of carbon tax is faster in DICE-E. If carbon tax will be implemented in 2015, a suggestion can be delivered based on our calculations: for gasoline 93#, carbon tax begins at RMB ￥0.1 per liter, increases 1 cent annually and reaches RMB ￥0.15 per liter at 2020. | | 查看全文 |
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