| GUO Kaiming,MAO Jiaxi.Aging of Labor Supply, Structural Change in Employment,and Labor Productivity[J].The Journal of quantitative and technical economics,2025,(12):109-129 |
| 劳动力高龄化、就业结构变迁与劳动生产率 |
| Aging of Labor Supply, Structural Change in Employment,and Labor Productivity |
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| DOI： |
| 中文关键词: 劳动力年龄结构 劳动生产率 产业结构转型 就业结构 人口转变 |
| 英文关键词: Age Structure of Labor Supply Labor Productivity Structural Change Employment Structure Demographic Transition |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 中国人口转变不仅推动了劳动力规模由升转降，而且加快了劳动力高龄化趋势。本文构建了一个纳入不同年龄劳动力异质性的多部门一般均衡模型，研究了劳动力年龄结构变化对就业结构变迁和劳动生产率的影响。本文提出，由于不同年龄劳动力在不同产业的生产技术和产业间转移成本存在差异，其就业结构也会存在产业差别。劳动力高龄化对就业结构的影响方向取决于不同产业之间的替代弹性和不同年龄劳动力之间的替代弹性，在前者小于后者时，劳动力高龄化会提高不同年龄劳动力在年轻劳动力密集型产业的就业比重，反之亦然。将理论模型应用到中国现实经济，本文发现 2010~2020 年中国 50 岁及以上年长劳动力在劳动力总量中所占比重提高了 6.68 个百分点，这一劳动力高龄化趋势使第二产业年长劳动力和第三产业年轻劳动力的就业比重分别提高 6.20 个和2.14 个百分点，并使第二和第三产业劳动生产率分别降低了 2.44% 和 0.71%，最终使总体经济劳动生产率下降 1.58%。提升年长劳动力扩展型技术水平和降低年长劳动力产业间转移成本可以促进就业结构变迁，前者还可以进一步提升劳动生产率，从而对冲劳动力高龄化的不利影响。本文发展了关于人口转变与结构转型互动关系的研究，也为更好推动人口和经济高质量发展提出了政策建议。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| China’s fast demographic transition not only pushed the scale of the labor force from rising to falling but also accelerated the aging trend of the labor force. Understanding the impact of changes in the age structure of the labor force on the structural change in employment and labor productivity growth is of great importance for adapting to the new normal of population and promoting high-quality economic development in the new stage of development.Previous literature has studied the drivers of structural change and the impact of demographic transition on economic growth, but less attention has been paid to the direct effects of changes in labor structure on the supply side, as well as the heterogeneity of the labor force at different ages. This study focuses on the heterogeneity of the labor force at different ages and analyzes how the aging of the labor force affects economic structure and growth on the supply side.We build a multi-sector general equilibrium model that incorporates the heterogeneity of the labor force at different ages, especially the different mobility costs of the labor force at different ages. We first conduct static comparative analysis on the model and theoretically derive the impact mechanism of labor aging. Then, the model was extended and combined with relevant data from the industrial and household levels in China to quantitatively evaluate the impact of China’s aging labor force on structural changes across the three main sectors and aggregate labor productivity. The result was compared with other impacts of biased technological progress, changes in labor mobility cost, a decrease in total labor force, and changes in demand structure.We find that due to the difference in industrial technology and inmobility costs between industries for labor forces of different ages, the employment structure of the labor force at different ages differs across industries. The direction of the impact of anaging labor force on employment structure depends on the elasticity of substitution both across industries and among labor forces of different ages. If the latter is smaller than the former, then an aging labor force will increase the proportion of young and elderly employment in young labor-intensive industries and vice versa. We apply our theoretical model to China’s economy. We find that from 2010 to 2020, the share of the elderly labor force aged 50 and above in the total labor force in China increased by 6.68 percentage points. This trend of aging has increased the employment share of the elderly labor force in the secondary industry and the young labor force in the tertiary industry by 6.20 and 2.14 percentage points, respectively, and thus reduced the labor productivity of the secondary and tertiary industries by 2.44% and 0.71%, respectively, ultimately resulting in a 1.58% decrease in aggregate labor productivity. Promoting elderly-biased technological change and reducing the mobility costs between industries for elderly labor can accelerate changes in employment structure. The former can also enhance labor productivity, offsetting the adverse effects of an aging labor force.We contribute to the literature on the relationship between demographic transition and structural change. Based on the conclusions, we propose relevant policy recommendations to better promote the high-quality development of the population and economy.Specifically, we suggest the following four policy measures. First?, increase efforts to support reinvestment in human capital for older workers, effectively reduce the costs of acquiring new skills and learning new technologies, and enable them to better adapt to changes in labor demand driven by technological progress and industrial transformation. Second?, deepen structural reforms on the supply side of the labor market, improve mechanisms for market-based allocation of human resources, and effectively reduce barriers to the mobility of labor—especially for older workers—across industries, regions, and urban-rural areas. Third?, focus on the application of artificial intelligence to accelerate the development of new quality productive forces, promote technological progress that favors older workers, and upgrade labor-intensive industries with a higher share of older workers. Fourth?, advance high-quality population development, improve the policy system for fertility support, and facilitate the transformation of the labor supply structure. |
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