| GU Cheng,SHI Xinxu,王巍.Proving Credibility by Deeds: Government Credit Construction and Expectation Improvement of Private Enterprises[J].The Journal of quantitative and technical economics,2025,(12):45-65 |
| 徙木立信：政务信用建设与民营企业预期改善 |
| Proving Credibility by Deeds: Government Credit Construction and Expectation Improvement of Private Enterprises |
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| 中文关键词: 政务信用建设 欠款清理 民营企业预期 |
| 英文关键词: Government Credit Construction Arrears Clearance Private Enterprise Expectation |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 作为社会主义市场经济的重要微观主体，民营企业不仅是创造就业机会、推动技术创新的驱动力，更是提高经济发展韧性与内在活力、强化国家竞争力的关键所在。因此，采取有效措施稳定民营企业预期尤为重要。本文将国务院清理政府欠款专项督导行动作为政务信用建设的准自然实验，系统考察了政务信用建设对民营企业预期的影响。研究发现，政务信用建设通过纾解企业财务困境及优化政企关系双重渠道改善了民营企业预期，且这一效应并非源于企业管理层对年报信息的策略性操纵。异质性分析表明，政策效果在财政压力较大的地区、企业政府连接度较强及动态发展能力较弱的民营企业中更为显著。拓展性分析表明，在政务信用建设的影响下，民营企业预期的提升产生了多维效应：在就业方面，提升了员工质量，但对扩大雇佣规模和提高工资水平的作用有限；在创新方面，增强了创新投入，但对创新产出和创新效率的影响较弱。此外，还显著带动了企业投资增长。本文不仅拓展了企业预期影响因素的研究边界，也为深化政务信用建设、优化营商环境提供了政策启示。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| Expectation refers to the prediction and judgment of an individual or a group on the possible outcome of future events or situations based on existing information, experience, and analysis. For enterprises, expectation not only reflects a comprehensive judgment of enterprises on various factors such as policy guidance, macroeconomic environment, resource allocation, and market expansion. Private enterprises are important components of China’s economy, whose expectations play an irreplaceable role in promoting economic growth, expanding employment, and promoting innovation. Therefore, it is crucial to accurately identify the difficulties and challenges faced by private enterprises, which will contribute to introducing targeted policies and measures to boost their expectations effectively.Recent years have seen the increasing economic development and public service supply pressure of local governments, providing more opportunities for private enterprises to participate in the construction of local infrastructure and other public projects. Moreover, according to the existing financial management system and performance evaluation mechanism, local government departments are generally faced with budgetary soft constraints.When the contradiction between the slowdown of fiscal revenue growth and continued expansion of rigid expenditures intensifies, some local governments tend to relieve the financial pressure through delayed payment, installment, or debt restructuring. The weakening credit of governments caused by this type of arrears behavior is not only detrimental to the sustainment of private enterprises but also shakes the confidence of private capital in participating in government-enterprise cooperation projects.We use the State Council’s special supervisory action to clean up government arrears as a quasi-natural experiment of government credit construction and systematically examine the impact of government credit construction on the expectations of private enterprises and the mechanism. The findings reveal that government credit construction improves private enterprises’ expectations through the dual channels of relieving enterprises’ financial difficulties and optimizing government-enterprise relations, which does not originate from strategic manipulation of annual report information by enterprises’ management. A heterogeneity analysis indicates that the effect of the policy is more pronounced in regions with higher financial pressure, stronger corporate government connectivity, and private enterprises with weaker dynamic development capability. An expansion analysis reveals that under the influence of government credit construction, the improvement of private enterprises’ expectations has multidimensional effects.For instance, in terms of employment, it enhances the quality of employees, while limitedly promotes the expansion of hiring and an increase in wage levels.Further, in terms of innovation, it enhances innovation inputs but hardly accelerates innovation outputs andand has a weak impact on innovation efficiency. And it also significantly leads to the growth of enterprises’ investment.The contributions of this study are as follows. First, under the background of China’s weak economic development expectations, the authors systematically explore the microeconomic effect of governmental credit construction and fully reveal the potential influence mechanism of government credit construction on the expectations and behaviors of enterprises with a framework, including challenges in the private economy, government credit construction, and the behavior of clearing up the arrears of local governments. Second, with manually collected data from enterprise accounts related to government arrears, the authors verify that local government arrears clearing and supervisory action can effectively reduce the arrears of private enterprises, and this type of behavior of improving government credibility can help improve the expectations of private enterprises, providing strong theoretical support and practical basis for further promoting government credit construction and protecting the rights and interests of private enterprises. Third, the local government’s arrears clearance supervision action is examined to explore differences in the effects of government credit construction on the expectations of various types of private enterprises from the perspectives of region, government-enterprise, and enterprise. The findings will help policymakers to implement policies and optimize policy design. Fourth, the author analyzes in depth a series of business behaviors that private enterprises may adopt to help their long-term development after their expectations are significantly strengthened from three core dimensions of stabilizing employment, assisting innovation, and promoting investment, thereby enriching existing research on government credit construction and enterprise expectation promotion. |
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