| 王义中,林誉,林溪.大国科技竞争的潜在影响与政策应对——基于技术管制视角[J].数量经济技术经济研究,2026,(1):108-135 | | 大国科技竞争的潜在影响与政策应对——基于技术管制视角 | | Potential Impacts of Major Power Technology Competition and Policy Responses: From the Perspective of Technology Controls | | | | DOI： | | 中文关键词: 大国科技竞争 技术管制 经济影响 政策应对 | | 英文关键词: Major Power Technology Competition Technology Controls Economic Impact Policy Response | | 基金项目: | | | 中文摘要: | | 科技创新是大国竞争的关键领域，关系到经济可持续发展的动力 。本文构建包含产业和金融部门的两国开放经济模型，讨论了技术领先国家施加技术管制产生的影响，并分析了技术追赶国家的应对政策 。研究结果表明，一方面，技术管制通过提高额外技术引进成本和关键技术“卡脖子 ”两种途径，抑制了技术追赶国家战略性新兴产业的追赶能力，削弱其后发优势，不利于两国技术差距缩小 。另 一方面，技术管制也促使追赶国家的技术进步路径从对外引进、技术模仿趋向自主研发，从而激励其有效实施研发创新 。提供专项资金通过支持关键核心技术，强化银行风险识别能力从而缓解战略性新兴产业的融资约束，促进自主研发创新 。 同时，增强产业链独立性和限制高科技产品进口市场份额的政策能提高战略性新兴产业的比较优势，推动产业结构升级。 | | 英文摘要: | | Technology control is a common tactic employed by technologically leading nations to hinder the catch-up efforts of competitors. First, based on the characteristics of technology controls, this study introduces the leading country’s imposition of additional technology introduction costs and the implementation of “bottleneck constraints” in key technologies into a two-country open economy model. This reveals the impact of technology controls on the production and technology research and development R&D activities of strategic emerging industries, as well as the resulting changes to industrial, market, and credit structures. Second, it simulates the mitigating effects of various policies, such as providing special fund support for key technologies, enhancing industrial chain independence, strengthening banks’ risk identification capabilities, and restricting import market share, on technology controls and analyzes the potential social welfare impacts of these policies.The findings reveal that technology controls directly suppress the catching-up capability of strategic emerging industries in a technologically catching-up country and diminish its “latecomer advantage,” leading to negative outcomes, such as a widening technology gap and a shrinking market share for the catching-up country’s high-tech products. However, technology controls also push the catching-up country’s technological progress path from external introduction and imitation toward independent R&D, which incentivizes its R&D innovation to some extent.Financing constraints faced by the R&D sector in obtaining credit further hinder the technological catch-up of strategic emerging industries, causing a shift in comparative advantage from strategic emerging industries to traditional industries, which is detrimental to technological innovation and industrial upgrading. Finally, the simulation results of the four countermeasures reveal that providing special fund support for key core technologies and strengthening banks’ risk identification capabilities primarily work by alleviating the financing constraints of strategic emerging industries, thereby promoting independent R&D and technological innovation. In contrast, enhancing industrial chain independence and restricting import market share focus more on improving the comparative advantage of strategic emerging industries and promoting industrial structure upgrading. Regarding welfare effects, the first three types of policies can effectively optimize the industrial structure and enhance productivity, thereby increasing overall social welfare. In comparison, although protective measures that rely solely on restricting import share expands the market share of the catching-up country to some extent, it ultimately leads to a decline in welfare levels due to the suppression of effective social consumption.The main contributions of this study are as follows: First, it discusses the potential impacts of and responses to technology controls from a structural perspective. Unlike the existing literature, this study focuses on the structural impacts triggered by technology controls, revealing changes in industrial, market, and credit structures that are often overlooked by macro- and micro-level studies. This helps deepen the understanding of their economic effects and enables more precise matching and implementation of countermeasures. Second, in terms of model construction, it is a novel study to characterize the two methods of implementing technology controls. By introducing the leading country’s imposition of additional technology introduction costs and “bottleneck constraints” in key technologies into a two-country open economy model and highlighting the competitive relationship between the two countries, this study clarifies the transmission path of technology introduction restriction shocks. This provides a feasible and unified theoretical framework for subsequent research on major power technology competition and technology controls. Third, at the policy response level, it examines the mitigating capacity of structural policies such as industrial and financial policies. This study focuses on these two types of policies, emphasizing the role of industrial chain independence and market protection, as well as the assistance that financial institutions and markets can provide. It identifies policies that can enhance industrial chain resilience and offers ideas for solving the problem of technological “bottleneck constraints” by better leveraging the role of various financial institutions. Thus, it provides insights for anchoring policy directions in the long term to achieve technological catch-up. | | 查看全文 相关附件： 下载数据代码附录 |
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